The Princeton Offense

Pete Caril, the head coach of the Princeton Tigers basketball team for thirty seasons, developed what is known as the Princeton Offense. The scheme calls for exceptionally well coached players to execute intricately designed plays with precision. Jason Garrett, the offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys and a Princeton graduate, has a slight variant of this with my beloved Cowboys in which poorly coached players wander around aimlessly with 8:1 Super Bowl odds and "Yakkity Sax" playing in the background.

The Cowboys' offense has become stale and predictable. "Predictable" is a word more closely associated with the Eagles' offense, though I think "creepy" fits for them as well since Andy Reid usually opts to distribute candy to children from unmarked vans on third and short. He later challenges his ability to do so, and invariably loses.

I'm three games back of the leader in my picks league after a reasonable 8 win performance in Week 2. Home teams in bold:

San Francisco over Kansas City (+2.5)

I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs before the season started. Granted, I made the pick in 2009, but still. I could have just acted like every economist and financial analyst of the last two years and said I'm "cautiously optimistic" about the Chiefs future. Why? Because if things go well, I can point to my optimism; if not, I will remind you that I was cautious this whole time anyway. I hate CNBC.

Baltimore (-10.5) over Cleveland

Josh Cribbs and Jerome Harrison are both questionable today, making a terrible offense even worse. Eric Mangini almost had a great coaching career – in his first season, he beat the Pats once and led the Jets to an unlikely playoff berth. After his second season was marred by a slew of injuries, his season three team started off 8-4 and beat the then-undefeated Tennessee Titans by 3 touchdowns in Week 12. Mangini was in commercials for cell phones in the tri-state area. Soon, Favre hurt his elbow, the Jets collapsed, and Mangini got fired. Now he's in Cleveland and he'll probably be fired after this season. Mangini will have won something like six games over two years by the time this season ends – making him the early favorite to be hired by Buffalo in 2012.

Houston (-2.5) over Dallas

I used to say that I would never pick against Dallas since I didn't want conflicting gambling/rooting interests. I looked through the rest of their schedule, and Dallas could finish 4-12 if they get a couple of lucky breaks, but 2-14 is more likely.

Detroit (-10.5) over Minnesota

Jason Whitlock and Bill Simmons have been pushing the idea that Favre would rather be in Mississippi than Minnesota. Since they are the only two sportswriters I read regularly, they hold a disproportionate amount of influence in the way I think about sports, barbecue and season 2 of "90210". Detroit is another reason for Clevelanders to feel crummy about their sports team. The Lions hired a hungry coach instead of a retread and have a nucleus of Stafford, Johnson and Suh around which they can build.

New England (-13.5) over Buffalo

Actually, Clevelanders can feel good that they aren't Bills fans. As Mark Schlereth might say, "(leans in quietly) chan gailey strikes me as a coach who has lost the hearts and minds of this football team. (loudly) THAT'S NOT HOW YOU WIN FOOTBALL GAMES IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!!!!"

New Orleans (-4.5) over Atlanta

It's possible that the 2010 Falcons are like the 2009 Bengals – a team whose games I pick incorrectly for 15 games.

Tennessee over New York Giants (-3.5)

The Giants defense is horrible and I wouldn't trust Eli Manning to cover this spread or perform quadruple bypass surgery. Only one of these trust issues is relevant, but Eli and I should do trust falls just in case.

Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay (+2.5)

I think the Bucs changed the color of their pants, which is a huge reason for me to pick against them. If my Mark Schlereth Quote Generator is something like "(soft, pseudo-political statement dripping with morality transitioning into LOUD PSEUDO-POLITICAL STATEMENT DRIPPING WITH MORALITY!!!)" then my Jon Gruden Quote Generator is "(nonsense nonsense nonsense cliché cliché nonsense, Jaws?)". For example, "Guys, I'm not so sure that that the BUCS PANTS don't change…the CULTURE OF THAT LOCKER ROOM….Jaws?". Gruden used to be my favorite coach after his amazing work in Oakland and Tampa Bay, and I honestly hope that Jerry Jones throws $50 million at him or Cowher to come coach the Cowboys. But that doesn't change the fact that Gruden is the worst analyst on TV.

Cincinatti over Carolina (+3.5)
Oakland over Arizona (-4.5)

I will not be watching either of these games

Philadelphia over the Los Angeles Jaguars (+2.5)

I can't wait for the Los Angeles Jaguars to play the Toronto Bills in London in Week 18 of the 2013 season. Thank you Roger Goodell for ruining everything.

Washington Redskins over St. Louis Rams (+3.5)

I think Sam Bradford has looked decent through two weeks, but then, so did Ryan Leaf. Ryan Leaf has become the Hitler of NFL quarterback comparisons. In politics, lazy media personalities will say things like "…and you know who ELSE did that?! HITLER!" Ryan Leaf had a brief stint as the starting quarterback in Dallas.

Indianapolis over Denver (+6.5)

Champ Bailey is hurt and the Broncos weren't good enough to beat the Jaguars. Since Week 6 last year, I can't think of a single thing that Broncos fans can be happy about unless, you know, they had a child or found a better job or something. Sports probably mean too much to us.

San Diego over Seattle (+5.5)

The NFL Network is currently airing an incredible miniseries in which they count down the Top 100 Players in NFL History. I know that the point of the list is to be more historic than accurate – in other words, for the entire body of work to serve as a celebration of the league's history and not a definitive list of excellence. Still, the only reason to make lists is to argue about them. And come on! Randy Moss and LaDanian Tomlinson in the mid-'60s??? The top two non-QB offensive talents over the last twelve years aren't top-30?

Randy Moss is the reason the '07 Patriots and '98 Vikings combined to go 34-3* including postseason play. The '07 Patriots are the highest scoring offense of all time…topping only the '98 Vikings. Brian Billick was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota in '98 and can thank Moss for getting him a job as the Ravens head coach (even though the Ravens' offense always sucked with Billick in charge). The search for the next Randy Moss is the reason Matt Millen drafted something like four hundred wide receivers with a top-5 draft pick. Packers GM Ted Thompson's mind-boggling refusal to pay Randy Moss market value is the reason Brett Favre left the Packers and ended up destroying his own legacy.

I meant to write something about Tomlinson as well, but that Randy Moss rant really took a lot out of me. I write when I want to write.

New York Jets
(+1.5) over Miami

Miami is a very good team. But the Jets' Week 2 win over the Patriots could act as a catalyst for this team to go on a winning streak or, at the very least, what Krusty the clown refers to as "the bender to end all benders". I love the Michigan Wolverines but I'm disgusted by Braylon Edwards's actions. Braylon should have done what all college kids do after a night out – namely, stumbled into WaWa at 5 am and purchased 3,500 calories worth of food. That and not driven.

Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago

Mike Martz has been the recipient of a lot of love from the pundit class this week. Here are some things to keep in mind:

1. His wins came against Detroit (the Bears only scored 19 points) and Dallas (the Cowboys suck).
   
2. The Greatest Show on Turf was created by Dick Vermeil, not Mike Martz. Martz took Vermeil's roster and talent and turned it into Marc Bulger and zero Super Bowl wins.
   
3. The 2001 Patriots are clearly the least talented champion of the last 15 years. Martz played into Bellichick's hands by refusing to run the offense through Marshall Faulk – the league's MVP that year. I'm not taking anything away from what the 2001 Patriots did – they were a smart, gritty team which played the game the right way (vomits). But Martz's arrogance cost the Rams a second title.
   
4. After Martz left the Rams, he went 10-19 in two seasons as Detroit's coach before becoming the 49ers' offensive coordinator. Martz's Wikipedia page actually includes the quote "Martz lobbied for journeyman J.T. O'Sullivan" to be the team's quarterback. Again, this man does not have great judgement.
   

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 12-20

America’s Game

When I was 17, I invested a significant amount of money in a company which makes discount HDTVs. Seven months later, I learned that equity holders do not fare very well during bankruptcy proceedings and that many of these equity holders are subject to getting yelled at by their respective mothers. Mom is a big fan of portfolio diversification.

I haven't wagered with real money since. Still, my friends and I pick every NFL game against the spread for fun each week. Last year, I picked 13 of 16 games correctly in Week 17 to complete an improbable run to the league championship. I was clearly affected by some sort of championship hangover, since I started out 2010 with a Week 1 record of 4-12. It's early in the season, but I am in last place by six games.

Chris Berman had a running joke where he picked Buffalo to play San Francisco in the Super Bowl every year for nearly two decades. I shy away from easy predictions because few predictions are correct anyway, and it's better to be thought provoking than correct in this context (did I mention my stock portfolio went to $0?). My two bold predictions for the 2010 NFL season have been with me for over a month now, though admittedly they are being posted a week late. One seems smart and the other doesn't.

1. The New England Patriots will miss the playoffs.
   

   
   

   This prediction is already looking weak. The Pats have the chance to reassert themselves as the class of the AFC if they stomp Rex Ryan and the Jets this Sunday. Rex, like his father Buddy, is a great defensive coach with an inability to develop potent offenses. Also, each has the first name of a dog. I expect Sparky Ryan to take over the Browns by Week 6.
   

   
   

2. The Washington Redskins will make the playoffs.
   

   
   

   Bill Simmons is the most popular sportswriter in the country, and the fact that I am calling the Skins my sleeper team 7 days and one victory after he did makes it seem as though this prediction is unoriginal. Nobody denies this.
   

   
   

   But, I've been touting Washington's chances all offseason. Last year, they lost 3 games in a row to the Eagles (up 10 in the 4^th quarter), Cowboys (lost 7-6 as Washington's kicker missed 2 easy FGs) and Saints (up 10 with 2 minutes left). I figured Shanahan and McNabb are enough to swing those close games in Washington's favor, as well as rectify embarrassing losses to Kansas City, Detroit and Carolina. And even if Alex Barron is the best player on their team so far, at least this prediction still has a chance of being right.
   

   
   

   On the other hand, Rex Grossman is the backup QB, and he sucks at being QB almost as much as I do at picking NFL games. Week 2 (home teams in bold):
   

Arizona (+6.5) over Atlanta

Atlanta is getting a lot of love from prognosticators and, presumably, Ron Mexico. I don't want to pick the Falcons primarily because they are an incredibly boring team to watch. At least with the Cardinals, I can remember how awesome the Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald Kennedy connection was. I can even remember how awesome the Jake Plummer/Frank Sanders connection was. But the most exciting offensive sequence in Falcons history was three plays with Deion Sanders in 1992.

Cincinnati (+1.5) over Baltimore.

Ray Rice looks amazing and will get plenty of red zone touches, unlike last week. You'd have to be a complete moron to turn down a trade of Ray Rice and Jeremy Shockey for Jamaal Charles and Jermichael Finley. I hope my fantasy football trade counterparty is reading this. Seriously though, that is a completely fair trade.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Cleveland

If Jake Delhomme can't play, Seneca Wallace will start for the Browns. Wallace was the league's MVP from 2006-2008 as he led the Cowboys to a record of 55-2 with three titles over that time period. Madden used to be awesome.

Dallas (-8.5) over Chicago

Alex Barron and Jason Garrett are worth 14 points to the other team. So really, this spread is Dallas by 22.5. Still, despite my pessimism for my favorite team's 2010 chances, I hate picking against my own rooting interest.

Philadelphia (-3.5) over Detroit

I hope Matthew Stafford is healthy if only because he looks like chubby Matt Damon.

Green Bay (-13.5) over Buffalo

Last year's Saints and the 2007 Patriots used to beat bad teams at home by at least three touchdowns. If the Packers can't do that, then…it means nothing because championships are decided in February. But, ESPN has a lot of airtime to fill, so there. I think the only way that ESPN could entertain me at this point is if I could watch a video of Mark Schlereth reacting to the news that the Bengals signed Manny Ramirez to be their tight end. "THIS MAN HAS NO RESPECT FOR THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!!!!!"

Tennessee (-5.5) over Pittsburgh

Every few years, Tennessee goes 13-3 and loses to Baltimore in its first playoff game. We're overdue.

Miami (+5.5) over Minnesota

The longest kick I ever made in a game was a 58-yarder with Olindo Mare to beat the Vikings.

Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

Guys! I found a great website where we can stream this game! WE WILL NOT MISS THIS SHOWDOWN!!!

Seattle
(+3.5) over Denver

Bill Belichick's coaching tree sucks, though at least Josh McDaniels is now the leading candidate to be Kansas City's 2011 water boy.

Oakland (-4.5) over St. Louis

Oakland is terrible, but my guess is that an interception-return touchdown will allow the Raiders to cover the spread.

Jets (+1.5) over New England

The Jets offense sucks. But there's no way that Brian Schottenheimer and Rex Ryan are dumb enough to try to run the offense through Mark Sanchez again. If the Jets run the ball 30 times – which they can do effectively against the Patriots – their defense is good enough to win the game.

San Diego (-7.5) over Jacksonville

The Jaguars will probably be playing in Los Angeles by 2013 anyway, so this is a crosstown rivalry as far as I'm concerned. The Chargers used to remind me of the Dallas Mavericks or Phoenix Suns – incredibly talented, fun to watch teams with charismatic superstars and a history of heartbreaking playoff losses. With the loss of Tomlinson, the Chargers are now the Suns without Nash or the Mavs without Dirk. No longer any reason to pull for them.

Houston (-2.5) over Washington

I wish the Texans played the 49ers this week in the Chick-Fil-A Preseason Hype Bowl, because the Texans would crush San Francisco and finally validate all the preseason love. I'm on the bandwagon.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York

I'm not picking against Jim Caldwell. Caldwell's career record in September is 4-1, and you just can't argue with those numbers.

New Orleans (-4.5) over San Francisco

At first, I thought this line said Saints -45, in which case it might make sense.

Last week: 4-12

Season: 4-12