Sunday, November 7, 2010

Midterms

No time to write a real NFL picks column today since I have a midterm tomorrow and I haven't started studying yet. Dan said last week's column was week anyway. I liked it, but his standards are impossibly high due to his own award-winning blog Fundamentally Roundd, in which he frequently comments on the link between rye bread, sriracha sauce, and reasonably priced produce.

Last week I went 7-6 after picking exclusively based on Frisk. Sadly, this was my first week all year where I was better than .500. Home teams in bold, wish me luck:

Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over Chicago Bears

Ryan Friskpatrick lives!

New England Patriots (-4.5) over Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions (+4.5) over New York Jets

Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) over Arizona Cardinals

New Orleans Saints (-7.5) over Carolina Panthers

Miami Dolphins (-5.5) over Baltimore Ravens

San Diego Chargers over Houston Texans (+1.5)

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over New York Giants

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

The aesthetics for this game are going to be awesome.

Indianapolis Colts over Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinatti Bengals (+4.5)

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is still getting too much love from Vegas. A 1-6 team with no secondary and no way to protect its quarterback (who is Jon Kitna, by the way) will not do well against Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews. Roy E. Williams said this week that he thinks Dallas can run the table, finish 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs. I'm just excited to have Cowher or Gruden next year. I looked at the numbers for the two coaches, and I can honestly say that I'm indifferent between the two:

Jon Gruden: 47 years old, 100-85 (career .540 win pctg), 1 Super Bowl title
Bill Cowher: 53 years old, 149-90-1 (career .623 win pctg), 1 Super Bowl title

Cowher's more accomplished, but slightly older and I think Gruden would be hungrier.


Friday, November 5, 2010

The Decisions

The rise of atdhe.net and justin.tv has changed the way we watch sports. Each site is presumably illegal, but each offers live streams of sporting events which would otherwise be either unwatchable or prohibitively expensive to order (NFL Sunday Ticket is not cheap). Watching NFL games through these websites is a fantastic way to avoid the classic Jersey trap of "Jets-Bengals at 1, Giants-Cardinals at 4" as my only viewing options. The video quality is slightly worse than standard definition, but I'm still happy to watch.

The same cannot be said of the websites' transmission of NBA games. The video feeds were glitchier and more prone to collapse. More importantly, mediocre video quality becomes a far bigger problem when watching an NBA game.

An NFL broadcast is structured in such a way that makes it robust to problems with a stream's video quality. When the ball is thrown or a running back takes the ball, the camera follows the action so the viewer's eyes are "guided" to where they are supposed to be. Individual players are easy to keep track of as well. Peyton Manning's number 18 is displayed largely and Manning can always be found a few steps behind the line of scrimmage.

The same cannot be said for basketball, which makes it difficult to enjoy a pirated stream with mediocre resolution. Once the offense crosses half court, the camera is essentially static. This means the viewer must follow the ball on his own – an effortless task in HD, but pretty annoying with grainy video. Moreover, the fluidity of basketball means that it is significantly more difficult to keep track of where the players are. Imagine the following scenario:

A camera follows Rajon Rondo, and it pans from left to right as he brings the ball up the court. The camera settles as the Celtics get into an offensive set. Rondo throws the ball to Ray Allen on the near side wing. Rondo cuts through the paint after his pass, but your eyes stay on Allen since he has the ball. With grainy video and Rondo now somewhere else on the court, can you quickly find Rondo?

Probably not. Plus, I picked a team (Boston) with multiple stars whose faces fans would recognize instantly. Replace Rondo and the Big 3 with the Milwaukee Bucks and an already difficult task becomes exponentially tougher.

Fortunately, the
NBA allows fans to purchase the ability to stream live games to their laptops for the entire regular season. The video quality is excellent, and the only restrictions are that games featuring the local market's team and games which are nationally televised are blacked out. The league offers two options: a Premium League Pass package in which every game from every team is available (for $190) or a Choice League Pass package where every game for seven teams is available ($120).

I don't have time to watch every game of every team, so I didn't think it was worth the extra $70 to watch every game. $120 is not cheap, but I love the NBA (despite Stu Jackson's best efforts) and decided to splurge. This meant I had a decision to make:

If you just spent $120 for the ability to watch every game for the rest of the year for seven teams, which seven would you choose?

I chose based on the following:

Diversification: I didn't want to pick too many teams in the same division. Since I can only pick seven teams, I didn't want to waste too many games where two of my seven would be playing each other.

Exposure: There are a handful of teams which are frequently on national TV. Since all of these games will be blacked out on League Pass, I wanted to avoid the teams with high exposure unless I could come up with a compelling reason.

Storyline: There are several teams where we pretty much know how the season is going to end. For example, it's hard to see Utah getting past the second round of the playoffs. I like Deron Williams and will watch him whenever he's on national TV, but it doesn't seem worth it to waste one of my seven spots on the Jazz because the team itself isn't going anywhere.

Potential: This criterion was initially titled "Young Talent" but that sounds really creepy. I think that watching young, hungry players for an entire regular season is more interesting than watching a polished veteran team which is saving itself for the playoffs.

Here's what I came up with:

Boring teams which never had a chance to be chosen: Charlotte, Toronto, Cleveland, Indiana, Detroit, Memphis, Philadelphia, Minnesota.

The Sixers have Evan Turner and the Timberwolves have Kevin Love, but neither plays more than 27 minutes per game and their respective teams are otherwise awful.

Not getting past the second round: Atlanta, Houston, Utah, Denver

I think it's best if we're just friends: Phoenix, New Orleans

It was very difficult for me to say goodbye to Steve Nash and Alvin Gentry. I loved the 2009-10 Suns; by returning to the Seven Seconds or Less offense, Nash & Gentry nearly got the Suns to the Finals. During the offseason, last year's roster was blown up and Steve Kerr resigned due to the owner's cheapness. The Suns have started 1-3 and Nash's recent comments suggest that he might want to leave Phoenix. I'm ok with him jumping to a contender for the same reason it was fine when Gary Payton and Karl Malone (and Ray Borque, and LaDainian Tomlinson…) did it. If you're a first-ballot Hall of Famer with two years left and no hope of a title on your current team, it's ok to chase a ring with someone else. If the Suns start off 11-23 and Nash gets dealt, what's the point of watching the Suns?

I had the same rationale with the Hornets. Chris Paul is one of my favorite players, but if he gets traded or hurt, then I'm stuck watching Peja Stojakavic and pretending its 2002.

Coasting until April and always on TV: Boston, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio, Orlando.

Rajon Rondo is electric enough that I nearly went with Boston, but in the end I didn't think it was worth it. I love watching Kobe play – and rooting against him – but he's saving his legs for the playoffs. The Spurs and Magic are always on TV. I like watching Dwight Howard, but we already know what's going to happen in Orlando this year (unless they land Nash or Chris Paul): 58 wins, beat every bad team by 20 but lose in the 2nd round to Boston or Miami.

Almost did it but changed my mind: Portland, Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee, Sacramento, New York

Portland has the most depth (and, um, length) of any team in the league. Reggie Miller said that the Blazers are more likely to challenge the Lakers than the Thunder, and I think he's right. The Clippers have great young talent (Blake Griffin and Eric Bledsoe) but I realize that picking too many crappy teams with fun players would not be good decision making. The Bucks have a player who personally responded to my message on Facebook but are probably going to regress from last season. The Knicks have great uniforms and some solid young talent (Landry Fields, Toney Douglas, Danilo Gallinari) but I wasn't comfortable spending a spot on them.

One quick note: The Portland crowd disappointed me so hard yesterday. During a tense, nationally televised game last night against another elite team (the Thunder) the crowd was effectively dead. I was surprised since the conventional wisdom is that Portland has a top-5 NBA crowd. Maybe they do, but they sucked yesterday.

The Chosen: New Jersey, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Washington, Golden State, Miami.

The Nets were my favorite team for roughly fifteen years until they finalized plans to move to Brooklyn, removed "New Jersey" from their uniforms and traded away my favorite player of all time. You might think that I should still be a Nets fan after the move due to Brooklyn's proximity to New Jersey, but I feel like the organization disrespected its current home to the extent that I am no longer a fan. People in Seattle don't root for the Thunder, you know?

I picked the Mavericks as my new favorite team once they landed Jason Kidd in 2008. I root for old guys with no rings in any sport, so I am happy to pay to watch Kidd and Nowitzki on a daily basis despite the Mavs' high exposure level. I also picked Oklahoma City as one of my League Pass teams since they have Durant and Russell Westbrook and the best home crowd in basketball.

The Thunder are a chic pick to win the West this year, but I see two major holes. First, their help defense is awful. The Blazers and Clippers both scored at will against Oklahoma City. TNT stat guys put up a graphic yesterday which said that the Thunder allow the most field goal attempts near the rim of any team in the NBA. Second, Russell Westbrook is actually more clutch than Kevin Durant right now. I love everything about Kevin Durant, especially the way he carries himself. But during last night's Portland game, it was Westbrook's combination of key jumpshots and fearless drives which saved the Thunder in the 4th Quarter. Durant missed his last five shots from the field. If I remember correctly, the same thing happened during last year's playoff series against Los Angeles: late in games, Durant couldn't hit a shot and Westbrook would have to bail his team out. I'm not calling Durant soft or anything, and he's obviously the most important player on that team. I'm just writing what I saw.

The Bulls have great uniforms and a potential MVP in Derrick Rose. The Warriors have the most fun offense in the league, or as some might say…one of the MOST BEST OFFENSE…IN THE LEAGUE.

John Wall is amazing and I hate how he's going to be a superstar since he won't be on the Nets. Wall's quickly becoming one of my favorite players and I'm excited to watch his development this year. I realize that if he gets hurt, then I'm screwed because I'll be watching JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche for 82 games, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. Colin Cowherd blasted John Wall because…he's 19 and has fun before games.

I don't make fun of ESPN's NFL analysts (Schlereth, Hoge) anymore because it finally hit me how difficult their jobs are. It's hard to say something interesting, on live TV, when your audience is already pretty well-educated about the sport. I was being unfair to them. But Cowherd is an opinion guy, and his anti-Wall tirade was pathetic and mean-spirited.

Finally, the Heat. The Heat play on national TV a lot this season, and it's possible one of their stars gets hurt. Their home crowd sucks and they act like they've won five titles. But…come on. This is Miami's season, and I can't look away.