When I was 17, I invested a significant amount of money in a company which makes discount HDTVs. Seven months later, I learned that equity holders do not fare very well during bankruptcy proceedings and that many of these equity holders are subject to getting yelled at by their respective mothers. Mom is a big fan of portfolio diversification.
I haven't wagered with real money since. Still, my friends and I pick every NFL game against the spread for fun each week. Last year, I picked 13 of 16 games correctly in Week 17 to complete an improbable run to the league championship. I was clearly affected by some sort of championship hangover, since I started out 2010 with a Week 1 record of 4-12. It's early in the season, but I am in last place by six games.
Chris Berman had a running joke where he picked Buffalo to play San Francisco in the Super Bowl every year for nearly two decades. I shy away from easy predictions because few predictions are correct anyway, and it's better to be thought provoking than correct in this context (did I mention my stock portfolio went to $0?). My two bold predictions for the 2010 NFL season have been with me for over a month now, though admittedly they are being posted a week late. One seems smart and the other doesn't.
- The New England Patriots will miss the playoffs.
This prediction is already looking weak. The Pats have the chance to reassert themselves as the class of the AFC if they stomp Rex Ryan and the Jets this Sunday. Rex, like his father Buddy, is a great defensive coach with an inability to develop potent offenses. Also, each has the first name of a dog. I expect Sparky Ryan to take over the Browns by Week 6.
- The Washington Redskins will make the playoffs.
Bill Simmons is the most popular sportswriter in the country, and the fact that I am calling the Skins my sleeper team 7 days and one victory after he did makes it seem as though this prediction is unoriginal. Nobody denies this.
But, I've been touting Washington's chances all offseason. Last year, they lost 3 games in a row to the Eagles (up 10 in the 4th quarter), Cowboys (lost 7-6 as Washington's kicker missed 2 easy FGs) and Saints (up 10 with 2 minutes left). I figured Shanahan and McNabb are enough to swing those close games in Washington's favor, as well as rectify embarrassing losses to Kansas City, Detroit and Carolina. And even if Alex Barron is the best player on their team so far, at least this prediction still has a chance of being right.
On the other hand, Rex Grossman is the backup QB, and he sucks at being QB almost as much as I do at picking NFL games. Week 2 (home teams in bold):
Arizona (+6.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta is getting a lot of love from prognosticators and, presumably, Ron Mexico. I don't want to pick the Falcons primarily because they are an incredibly boring team to watch. At least with the Cardinals, I can remember how awesome the Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald Kennedy connection was. I can even remember how awesome the Jake Plummer/Frank Sanders connection was. But the most exciting offensive sequence in Falcons history was three plays with Deion Sanders in 1992.
Cincinnati (+1.5) over Baltimore.
Ray Rice looks amazing and will get plenty of red zone touches, unlike last week. You'd have to be a complete moron to turn down a trade of Ray Rice and Jeremy Shockey for Jamaal Charles and Jermichael Finley. I hope my fantasy football trade counterparty is reading this. Seriously though, that is a completely fair trade.
Kansas City (+1.5) over Cleveland
If Jake Delhomme can't play, Seneca Wallace will start for the Browns. Wallace was the league's MVP from 2006-2008 as he led the Cowboys to a record of 55-2 with three titles over that time period. Madden used to be awesome.
Dallas (-8.5) over Chicago
Alex Barron and Jason Garrett are worth 14 points to the other team. So really, this spread is Dallas by 22.5. Still, despite my pessimism for my favorite team's 2010 chances, I hate picking against my own rooting interest.
Philadelphia (-3.5) over Detroit
I hope Matthew Stafford is healthy if only because he looks like chubby Matt Damon.
Green Bay (-13.5) over Buffalo
Last year's Saints and the 2007 Patriots used to beat bad teams at home by at least three touchdowns. If the Packers can't do that, then…it means nothing because championships are decided in February. But, ESPN has a lot of airtime to fill, so there. I think the only way that ESPN could entertain me at this point is if I could watch a video of Mark Schlereth reacting to the news that the Bengals signed Manny Ramirez to be their tight end. "THIS MAN HAS NO RESPECT FOR THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!!!!!"
Tennessee (-5.5) over Pittsburgh
Every few years, Tennessee goes 13-3 and loses to Baltimore in its first playoff game. We're overdue.
Miami (+5.5) over Minnesota
The longest kick I ever made in a game was a 58-yarder with Olindo Mare to beat the Vikings.
Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay
Guys! I found a great website where we can stream this game! WE WILL NOT MISS THIS SHOWDOWN!!!
Seattle
(+3.5) over Denver
Bill Belichick's coaching tree sucks, though at least Josh McDaniels is now the leading candidate to be Kansas City's 2011 water boy.
Oakland (-4.5) over St. Louis
Oakland is terrible, but my guess is that an interception-return touchdown will allow the Raiders to cover the spread.
Jets (+1.5) over New England
The Jets offense sucks. But there's no way that Brian Schottenheimer and Rex Ryan are dumb enough to try to run the offense through Mark Sanchez again. If the Jets run the ball 30 times – which they can do effectively against the Patriots – their defense is good enough to win the game.
San Diego (-7.5) over Jacksonville
The Jaguars will probably be playing in Los Angeles by 2013 anyway, so this is a crosstown rivalry as far as I'm concerned. The Chargers used to remind me of the Dallas Mavericks or Phoenix Suns – incredibly talented, fun to watch teams with charismatic superstars and a history of heartbreaking playoff losses. With the loss of Tomlinson, the Chargers are now the Suns without Nash or the Mavs without Dirk. No longer any reason to pull for them.
Houston (-2.5) over Washington
I wish the Texans played the 49ers this week in the Chick-Fil-A Preseason Hype Bowl, because the Texans would crush San Francisco and finally validate all the preseason love. I'm on the bandwagon.
Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York
I'm not picking against Jim Caldwell. Caldwell's career record in September is 4-1, and you just can't argue with those numbers.
New Orleans (-4.5) over San Francisco
At first, I thought this line said Saints -45, in which case it might make sense.
Last week: 4-12
Season: 4-12
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