No, Really, I Swear!

I couldn't really come up with one coherent column idea this week, so here's a bunch of thoughts I had while waiting for the best Sunday of the year:

One night in late August, my high school friends and I were hanging out with a few beers and talking about the upcoming NFL season. I should clarify that by "high school friends", I mean people that I was friends with growing up – I don't want to imply that I enjoy casual drinking with seventeen year olds. Anyway, one of my friends asked each of us to share our Super Bowl prediction.

I picked the Jets to play the Packers. I don't have this in writing, so I guess it doesn't count.

Two picks I DID get into writing? I said the Patriots would miss the playoffs and that the Redskins would make them. Again, I suck at picking NFL games and the fact that my Jets-Packers pick is still alive is basically a fluke. But like…I'm just sayin'.

I never expected to write a weekly football column for Fundamentally Soundd, but they're way too much fun to write. I don't even know what I'm going to writing about once the Super Bowl is done. Nobody writes a weekly basketball column, and I don't really like baseball or college basketball enough to write about them. Daggers all around.

I'll take the Jets by seven and Packers by 21.

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Championship Sunday is my favorite day of the season. The matchups and storylines are great every year, and each year almost always gives us at least one classic game. Last year's Minnesota-New Orleans game was fantastic, as were both '08 games (ARZ-PHI and PIT-BAL), '07 NFC (NYG-GB) and '06 AFC (NE-IND). Championship Sunday feels a lot like the few minutes riiiight after school got out on Friday before a three day weekend. In those few minutes, you knew you had the maximum amount of freedom with three full days separating you from class again. Similarly, today we get to indulge in two potentially awesome football games with the knowledge that we still get the Super Bowl to look forward to. There's literally nothing to do but sit back, watch Pokemon cartoons and ask mom to make a snack.

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I've said this before, but the NFL Network is awesome. Deion Sanders and Michael Irvin are great, Marshall Faulk and Steve Mariucci are pretty good, and Rich Eisen is the best studio host on television. I'd even take Eisen over TNT's Ernie Johnson, which is saying a lot. Anyway, Irvin told a great story this morning before bringing up an excellent point.

Essentially, he said that when he first came into the league he was interviewed by the man who at the time held all the Cowboys receiving records, Drew Pearson. The young Irvin felt overwhelmed by the man's stats and thought he'd never catch him (he did). He did, however, set a realistic goal of topping Pearson's Super Bowl ring total. After telling this story this morning, Irvin pointed out that in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers will never break Brett Favre's records for passing yards or touchdowns. But since Favre only won one ring, Rodgers could actually eclipse Favre in Packers history by bringing home the Lombardi trophy and eventually retiring as a Packer.

Speaking of Favre, I remained a fan of watching him play football until he retired. Hate to pull a John Madden here, but big games undoubtedly felt bigger with Favre in them. Two of the best five football games of my college career (MIN-NO and GB-NYG) featured Favre. I know it's become chic to hate on the guy, but I never really jumped on that bandwagon for the same reason I don't hate Tim Tebow. You can't hate someone just because the media fawns over them, even if it is excessive.

Even though I never hated Favre, I don't have it in me to really defend him either. As much as I liked watching him play, he was obnoxious – but never criminal - in the way he treated women during his time with the Jets and Vikings. Plus, every post-game interview this season he kept praising himself for his toughness and how brilliant his career was. It would be a nice story if, like Emmitt Smith did with Dallas, Favre signed a meaningless contract to retire as a Packer. I don't think it's going to happen though. From what I can tell based on his arrogance during those post-game interviews and press conferences, Favre doesn't think of himself as "Brett Favre, Green Bay Packer." He thinks of himself as "Brett Favre, Inc."

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Finally , on-campus recruiting (OCR) is going on right now and all my friends who are juniors are freaking out. OCR is a big deal at Wharton because it's when all the big investment banks and consultancies come to campus to look for interns. Strong performance during an internship with a premier company after your junior year usually results in a full-time job offer for you, which takes all the stress out of senior year.

My friend Steve told me that he wished that NFL teams came to campus during OCR and that we could apply to have coaching internships with them. We wouldn't be doing grunt work like splicing film or getting Gatorade for people. Instead, the internship would be ten weeks of learning how to break down film and come up with a game plan. Maybe we could even learn how to tank for a better draft pick or engage in a bitter power struggle with management.

The classic Whartonite status obsession would obviously carry over to NFL OCR. Undergraduates studying finance are the only people in the world who think $15,000 for ten weeks' work is disappointing if it comes from one of the "less prestigious" banks. To be fair, I'd look down on anyone who only got an offer from the Panthers. That's so weak. At that point I'd probably just go to grad school.

My first choice would be the Cowboys. Since they hired Rob Ryan (Rex's brother) as the defensive coordinator, I figure that would be the ideal place to learn a lot about scheming while working for my favorite team. My nightmare scenario would be if I only got offers from Philadelphia and Washington.

People going into financial services often think about exit opportunities. Most investment banking analyst classes last two years, and many analysts move on to private equity or a hedge fund once the two years are finished. Consulting has a similar structure. NFL opportunities would be all about the coaching tree. You would THINK that you'd want to work for Bill Belichick, but his coaching tree's track record is pretty bad. If I was going to pick based solely on exit opportunities – defined here as which coaching tree you would want to be a part of – I'd pick Sean Payton and hope some of the Parcells magic is transferred to me.

Cute Kittens

Google's Blogger service provides surprisingly powerful analytic tools to see how much traffic your blog gets. To be clear, I write this thing as a hobby and don't particularly care about my page views – I never make it my Facebook status or promote it in any way. I tweet links to all my columns, but this is the equivalent of when I would pretend I was Michael Jordan as a little kid. "Simmons and Whitlock tweet column links too! I'M JUST LIKE THEM!!!!".

I dove into Fundamentally Soundd's traffic stats last week and found something that was absolutely hilarious. Most of the time, I give my columns snarky titles (like last week's "GalleryFurniture.com Seattle Home Game Bowl"). One week, I titled my column "America's Game of the Week". That week's column is the most viewed Fundamentally Soundd article by a factor of ten. Why? Because when you Google "America's Game of the Week", my article is the number four result! Even though I still don't care about traffic and will continue not promoting the site, I couldn't resist giving this column a truly horrific title in the hope that I'll see a hilarious spike in traffic.

To be fair, I already knew of the practice of giving things misleading names in order to get more traffic. In 9^th grade, my friend used to post videos on YouTube with very raunchy titles that would end up just being something like 45 seconds of footage of him playing video games. They all had over 5,000 views because people are gross. "Cute Kittens" is the first and last time I will do something like this.

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Last week, I wrote a lot about how people attribute things in sports to luck far too frequently. My position is the exact opposite of what my friend Angelo believes, and I asked him if he would be interested in writing a retort to my rant. Here's what he came up with (it's very good):

The idea that the best team always prevails in sporting events is Fundamentally Flawedd. Empirically, the notion that there is no luck involved in sporting contests is simply not true. Football Outsiders (a website known for its application and creation of unique football statistics) have proven that recovering fumbles is luck. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but recovering them is luck. When the ball hits the ground, each team has a 50/50 shot at recovering it. In the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl, there were 3 fumbles…all recovered by the Giants. The probability of such good fortune for the Giants is a mere .125. When something that both heavily impacts the game (turnovers in football are game-changers) and is statistically proven to be random chance favors one team to a relatively high degree of unlikelihood, how can it be said that there was no luck involved?

Another instance of luck in sports is one-run baseball games. Despite pundits creating storylines about teams being "clutch" and "finding a way to win," Bill James and other baseball analysts have pretty much done away with the notion. The only conclusive thing that can be said about one-run games (and to a lesser extent two-run games) is that there is a huge amount of luck involved in the outcomes. If winning one-run games was a skill, we would expect the teams with better overall records to generally have more success in one-run games. But no such correlation exists. For instance, just last year the 89-win Red Sox (.458) and 85-win Blue Jays (.461) had worse Winning Percentages in 1-run games than the 67-win Kansas City Royals (.473).

Let's look at the 1960 World Series between the Yankees and Pirates. The Yankees won games by scores of 16-3, 10-0, and 12-0. The Pirates won games by scores of 6-4, 3-2, 5-2, and 10-9. The conventional argument is that the Pirates were more clutch and that the Yankees couldn't handle close games. Besides being facially untrue (the 1960 Yankees featured many future all of famers and players with multiple championship rings such as Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra), Bill James and others have shown that there is an element of luck at play in all 4 of the Pirates victories.

Even if one chooses to ignore Bill James and blindly cling to the falsehood that winning one-run games is a skill, let's take a closer look at Game 7 of that World Series. The Yankees lead 7-4 with Pittsburgh batting in the bottom of the eighth. The leadoff batter singled. The next better, Bill Virdon, hit a routine double play ball to shortstop Tony Kubek. As Kubek was about to field the ball, it struck a pebble and smashed into Kubek's throat. Kubek was badly injured, had to leave the game, and Virdon was credited with a single. Instead of two outs and no one on, there were two men on and no outs. A single, sacrifice bunt, fly-ball out, an infield single, and a 3 run home run followed, and the Pirates had a 9-7 lead. While someone can argue that the Yankees should have done a better job at mitigating damages, and that the Pirates deserve credit for taking full advantage of the situation, the simple fact remains that neither team would have been in that situation had it not been for pure, dumb luck. No rational person could argue that "If Tony Kubek were a better shortstop he would have known the exact location of a specific pebble in the infield and would have accounted for that when attempting to field the ball." Nor can one argue that Bill Virdon displayed superior skill to hit the ball with just the right direction and velocity so as to strike the pebble and injure Kubek. Both arguments are absurd.

I could go on and discuss the half-court heave in basketball, the field goal blown astray by a sudden, unexpected gust of wind, or many other things, but I've already exceeded my word limit. Game 7 of the 1960 World Series is the perfect embodiment of the metaphorical "way the ball bounces." As much as we'd like to rationalize sports and believe in the feel-good notion that on every given day the better team won, this is simply not true…and it is because of this that we love sports so much. On any given day the best team in the world can lose to the worst, no matter how statistically unlikely it may be. Let's just not confuse this notion with the idea that they were necessarily the better team on that day.

I thought Angelo made a lot of great points. I'm a big fan of Football Outsiders and I have a ton of respect for the research they do. I think my main point is that we too frequently say that an upset occurred because of luck instead of attributing it to the solid execution of a good game plan.

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Adam and I are betting one beer per football game this week. I fully expect to owe him four beers by Sunday night. Home teams in bold, wish me luck:

Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore

I was going to pick Baltimore until I read the Football Outsiders preview of the game. It turns out that the Steelers are easily the second best team in the league, and that by some metrics they are actually more consistent than the Patriots.

For most of the decade, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were so much better than everyone that every conversation about the best QB started and ended with them. Last year, people added Drew Brees to the conversation. I think that our brains are wired to keeping these debates as small as possible (Bird/Magic, Ali/Frazier, Kobe/LeBron, etc.) just to keep the arguments neat and compartmentalized. The problem is that the level of quarterbacking in the NFL has become so good that what used to be a tidy two person debate is now far messier.

This year, we all agree that Brady was by far the best quarterback. But I think that Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers have elevated their respective games to the level of Manning and Brees. Manning and Brees are far better historically, obviously, but the 2010 versions of these four are basically indistinguishable. I once wrote that the glut of awesome QBs is similar to the point guard boom in the NBA. The conversation used to just be Chris Paul vs. Derron Williams but had to be expanded because Rondo, Rose and others are so good that the differences between any of them are negligible.

I think a fun debate would be the following: If you had one game to win, would you pick Manning or Roethlisberger to be your quarterback? What if it was a playoff game? Remember, during his 2006 title run, Manning threw three touchdowns and seven interceptions over four games en route to a Super Bowl win. That pretty much cancels out Roethlisberger's awful play during the Steelers' 2005 championship run.

Green Bay over Atlanta (-2.5)

The Falcons remind me of the 2001 Chicago Bears – won a lot of close games, finished 13-3 with a bye, and got destroyed at home by a much better Eagles team.

New England (-8.5) over New York

The problem for New York is that the Patriots have 52 good football players whereas the Jets have 51 good football players and Mark Sanchez.

Chicago (-10) over Seattle

My coach of the year pick would be Bill Belichick, followed closely by Raheem Morris and Todd Haley. Spags is close, but Haley's team had more success.

I dislike Pete Carroll's antics more than anything else in the NFL. All that ridiculous fist-pumping and whatnot even though he beat the Saints 2^nd string secondary and 12h string running back in an undeserved home game. I remain a huge fan of the city of Seattle due to Microsoft, Frasier and Shawn Kemp.

Last Week: 1-3
Playoff Record: 1-3
Regular Season Record: 113-143

Galleryfurniture.com Seattle Home Game Bowl

Four small columns synthesized into one to make up for not writing anything last week:

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Finishing 113-143 against the spread and last in my picks league sucked. My friend Angelo, with whom I tied for the picks title last year, won the coveted Double Crown. Angelo again tied for the lead in our picks league AND crushed everyone in our fantasy football league. Congrats to him. Angelo and I have an ongoing debate about what I will begrudgingly call "sports game efficiency" (YOU KNOW LIKE THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS!??!? LOOK HOW EDUCATED I AM!!!!!!!!)

Even though the EMH is stupid, I believe in sports game efficiency. The idea is that no team is lucky – the 2007 Giants, the 2002 Buckeyes and others won by outperforming their opponents and that no other outcome should be surprising after the "more talented" team has revealed its flaws. My belief is that real life is not like a Madden simulation in which the team with higher ratings should always win.

Let's take the Giants-Patriots Super Bowl as an example. Did the Giants get lucky? No. If Asante Samuel was a better corner, he would have caught the game-sealing interception. If Rodney Harrison was a better safety, he would have knocked the ball away from David Tyree. And for the record – Tyree's catch is so frequently mistaken for luck that it deserves its own defense.

The catch was not the result of a random sequence of numbers awarding him possession. A highly-trained athlete jumped, secured the football against a defender and maintained possession as he was thrown to the ground. The entire play was entirely in his control – which is pretty much the exact opposite of luck. Furthermore, the Giants were not the beneficiary of help from the referees since there was no holding on the play nor was Eli Manning held up long enough to warrant whistling the play dead. The play was all skill.

On the other hand, I might be doing what Nassim Taleb calls "affirming the consequent". Angelo's belief, which is more or less articulated in Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness, is that if you were to simulate Super Bowl 42 100,000 times the Patriots would win the vast majority of those games. Each of the 100,000 games would have a score, the median result would be a comfortable Patriots win, and the observed result in February 2008 was a lucky fluke which is several standard deviations away from this median result. It is a very convincing argument, and Taleb is a very smart guy (even though he's the most condescending writer of all time).

I disagree because I think the assumptions of the simulations, to continue the analogy, are wrong. The "model" would have the Patriots with an unstoppable offense, a playmaking defense and a coach who is never wrong. A more accurate model would have an offense which Steve Spagnuolo figured out and a coach who took too long to adapt. With this model, I believe the median result would more or less resemble Giants 17, Patriots 14. Admittedly, the assumptions of this truer model are only revealed after the fact. But that doesn't mean the Giants' win was luck – it just means we didn't have enough information before the game to know the Patriots were flawed. We should be able to recognize these flaws after the game and realize the game played out as it should have. Taleb's beliefs make sense in the context of financial markets and a lot of military history, but I do not believe they can be extrapolated to sports.

A few final points on luck. First, I agree that it is possible in certain instances to be lucky. The best example is a Chargers-Broncos game in which the Chargers would have certainly won if not for Ed Hochuli's error. Instances of human error in which the fundamental rules of the game are altered are the main cases where I would concede that the winning team got lucky. Second, injuries can be a source of luck depending on the circumstances. Kevin Garnett getting hurt in 2009 is not unlucky (he's still great, but now old and fragile), but Kendrick Perkins getting hurt in 2010 was unlucky (young, no major injury history).

As the great Rasheed Wallace once put it: "Ball don't lie."
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Complaining about ESPN is so played out that I can only do it ironically at this point. Plus, the easiest punching bag on the network is Around the Horn. Since I hate to be jumping on the hate-bandwagorn, I will say two nice things about the show before complaining:

1. I understand that the point of the show is to be provocative, which is the primary explanation for why people occasionally say outlandish things. They are under constant pressure to be original and entertaining, which is difficult.
   
2. I have nothing personally against anyone on the show, and I actually like Tim Cowlishaw and J.A. Adande.
   

My complaint is that two people on the show (I can't remember which two, I watched the episode five days ago) were vehemently defending Seattle's right to host a playoff game. It made me angry enough to turn off the TV since it is exactly the type of mind-blowing ignorance that led some people to think that C.C. Sabathia deserved a Cy Young more than Felix Hernandez.

I don't understand people who defend the sanctity of the division system. I think it's great for scheduling purposes, but that's about it. Four divisions (AFC East, AFC West, NFC East, NFC North) are awesome because any intra-division matchup is a great rivalry with tons of history. The other four divisions are more or less made up of teams who weren't cool enough to get bids to the good divisions.

From what I understand of the Champions League, the crappier country leagues send one team to the tournament and the more prestigious leagues send more. Automatic bids in that case makes sense – each country is at least partially represented and the end result is a richer tournament. Divisions aren't sovereign entities with unique histories and cultures. We would be better off if Tampa Bay or New York were allowed to take Seattle's place. Nine wins should be a pre-requisite for a division winner to make the playoffs, and division winners shouldn't be guaranteed a home game.

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My fantasy basketball team is second in overall points scored but fifth in the standings and under-.500. This isn't particularly uncommon. In our fantasy football league, the regular season points leader finished in ninth and missed the playoffs. I feel stupid saying this on the heels of my anti-luck rant, but how unlucky is that? Fantasy games fit my definition of luck since the scoring system is not reflective of actual football. For example, turnovers don't mean nearly as much in fantasy as they do in real football and key statistics like third-down conversions and time of possession don't even exist.

Anyway, I know that head-to-head matchups are fun and everything, but that necessarily means we don't crown the best fantasy football team champion. I think it should be based strictly on scoring. People who disagree with me are correct in saying that it makes the game less fun, but at least an overall points system is more accurate. Our current head-to-head system is essentially an extension of Seattle getting a home playoff game.

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Finally, my picks. Home teams in bold, wish me luck:

Saints (-10.5) over Seahawks

This is not just a pick for the Saints. It's a pick for The Enlightenment, or at least for indoor plumbing. I really hate the fact that the Seahawks are here.

Colts (-2.5) over Jets

I'll be rooting for the Jets, but I just feel like this Jets team can be beat through the air. It's not shameful to lose to Tom Brady, but it is shameful to lose to Tom Brady by 42 when you pride yourself on defense. It's also pretty weak to give up 38 points to Chicago when it's snowing (shouldn't cold, wintery weather be Jets conditions? I guess not.). I really believe the Colts will beat the Jets and Steelers and make the AFC Championship Game. I also finished 30 games under .500 in picks, so keep in mind that I suck.

Ravens (-3) over Chiefs

Haloti for days.

Eagles (-2.5) over Packers

Nobody's picking the Eagles – a team that eviscerated the entire Giants season in a span of 7.5 minutes and has had two weeks to study Green Bay. Andy Reid remains an underrated coach, at least from a Cowboys fan's perspective. I really like the Eagles' chances of winning the NFC since all of the Saints' running backs got hurt. Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

Mailbag 2

Once again, I begged my readership of six people to send me questions because mailbags are fun. Here's what they came up with:

Is petroleum jelly the best kind of jelly

This question lends itself to some easy sophomoric jokes which I have no intention of making. It does prompt a discussion about the best pseudo-foods though. I'd rank them, in order, as Chap-Stick (cherry), Tic-Tacs, Orbitz, Chap-Stick (unflavored), mouthwash, anti-freeze, toothpaste, insulin, permafrost, tempafrost, semi-frost, and Scott Frost.

Dear Mr. Soundd,

Have you noticed a strange narrative to this NFL season portrayed by the media? It seems that each year the actual on-field play matters less and less, and all the focus is placed on the drama surrounding the league. This year, it's been sex scandals, disgruntled players, disappointing teams, concussions and the violence of the game. I don't recall hearing the talking heads on Around the Horn sound off on Arian Foster's dominance, or Brandon freaking Lloyd destroying secondaries. Remember the LT watch a few years back? Or even AP's rookie year, when every game we would gush about what a HOF freak the guy was? Why aren't the efforts of the best players in the NFL being recognized anymore??

It's 2:30 in the morning and I had to take a break from organic chem, so this popped into my head. Take it or leave it.

Look man, it's Dr. Soundd. I didn't go through life as a high school dropout then become famous then get asked to speak at commencement for "cachet" then get an honorary dental degree JUST TO BE MR. SOUNDD. It's Dr. Soundd, D.D.S. if anything. I also love how you added "take it or leave it" to the end, making it the first ever passive-aggressive mailbag question. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, passively-aggresses like I do. I agree with the point that this reader raised, but he's also forgetting that the biggest stories this year mostly take place off the field.

The Brett Favre-Jenn Sterger story is the most obvious case. Many of us are too young to remember when Favre was the league's best player – he won his 3^rd and final MVP when I was eight. To put the scandal in perspective, it would be like Peyton Manning being embroiled in a harassment suit in 2019, except that for some reason he is the starter for the Patriots and nobody likes him anymore. I'm still a Favre fan though. I understand the reasons people cite when explaining why they are so tired of him, but I still like watching him play. Which brings us to the next question:

With Aaron Rogers and Jay Cutler firmly established gun-slingers, and Matthew Stafford's shoulder too busy "arm-sling"-ing, who is the future of gunslinging in the NFL? Is it Colt McCoy (who has the name) or Sam Bradford (who has the talent)? One thing is for sure, it's not Jimmy Clausen...Can we get a young gun-slingers power poll?

I like the use of "arm-sling" – a finely crafted pun. Gunslinging is going to get a lot of Oscar buzz this year because of the movie
True Grit, which I had assumed was about Jason Varitek playing the game the right way until I saw the trailer. I like how the NFL's quarterback situation and the NBA's point guard situation are both excellent right now. Each has a nice mix of legends (Brady/Manning/Nash/Kidd), stars in their respective primes (Rivers/Roethlisberger/Paul/Williams) and promising young'uns (Bradford/Stafford/Rose/Wall).

I'm going to skip the young gun-slingers power poll and instead direct everyone's attention to the most exciting player in the league: Haloti Ngata. Ever since Randy Moss died, Haloti has become my favorite player due to his ability to just eat offensive lineman. The man is completely unblockable. My favorite plays of his aren't the times he sacks the quarterback, but rather when he just bulldozes two linemen and collapses the pocket and forces an inaccurate throw. It's just so tough. Here is a video of Eddie George being tackled by Gilbert Brown's shoulder.

My son is finally starting to listen to real music. As a lifelong Springsteen fan I really want my son to grow up loving the Boss as much as I do. His birthday is coming up soon, and I would like to get him his first Bruce CD...as a fellow Springsteen junkie what do you suggest I get for him...Devils & Dust or Tunnel of Love? (I was much dismayed to discover that "A Patti Scialfa Christmas" is not in fact an actual album...damn)

It's difficult to rank Springsteen's albums since taste in music varies depending on mood. For example, if you're happy you'd probably pick the more upbeat songs from Born in the U.S.A., if you're depressed you might stick with Nebraska and if you feel like committing suicide you'll probably just listen to the song "Reno" to simulate the experience.

I love the Christmas season, and it's absolutely impossible to watch this video of young Bruce killin' it with "Santa Claus is Coming to Town" in Passaic, NJ in 1978 without feeling the same way. I remember when Bruce played halftime of the Cardinals-Steelers Super Bowl there was a prop bet of like 25:1 of a sax solo at some point during the show. Basically, that's a bet that he'll play "Born to Run", right? I wish I knew how to gamble because that was easy money. Actually, my picks record is 30 games under .500, so maybe it's a good thing I don't know any bookies.

With Robert Horry retired, and James Posey now decrepit, who is the current holder of the dagger?

Great question – I remember excitedly texting my friend when I found this movie in the clearance bin at Blockbuster. He jokingly asked if it was a buddy comedy starring Horry and Posey. A dagger, of course, is a key basket late in games that is technically not a game-winner but makes it very difficult for the other team to come back. The Washington Wizards' announcer Steve Buckhantz is famous for this call of a dagger by Gilbert Arenas. I vote for Derek Fisher as the current holder of the dagger.

Did you see Community yesterday?

I was asked this question by a friend on gchat and decided to throw it in the mailbag. I always make a point of watching 30 Rock and The Office and skipping the rest of NBC's Thursday night offerings. I've been told by many people that Community is worth watching, and I finally decided to try an episode after seeing the promos for the show's stop-motion Christmas special. It was fantastic.

The episode centers around one character experiencing psychological trauma and creating an alternate universe as an escape fantasy. I couldn't help but think of Pan's Labyrinth and Inception by the end of the show. I think the Community Christmas special actually compares favorably to Inception, which can be thought of as The Matrix 5 because The Matrix 4 was clearly Constantine. You never saw Constantine? I saw it twice in theaters and have the DVD.

I was able to admit when 30 Rock eclipsed The Office and it looks like Community might surpass 30 Rock. 30 Rock is frequently hilarious but most episodes don't have a meaningful plot and several characters (Kenneth, Jack's mom, etc.) have become annoying.

Do you think fundamental or technical analysis is more appropriate for analyzing who will win football games?

Well, we've seen a head-and-shoulders pattern coming from much of the NFC West and I think we're ready to see some breakout above recent resistance levels. Actually, my picks suck so much I'm better off just reading the entrails of a chicken.

One final point before moving to the picks. It's become chic to bash the telling of fantasy football stories before telling one. You know, saying something like "I know people hate fantasy football stories, but THIS STORY IS COMPLETLEY DIFFERENT". Whatever. I just wanted to let you guys know that even though I'm going to finish in last place in the picks league, I snuck into the playoffs in fantasy football as the eight seed and I'm ready to start an improbable run to the title.

Home teams in bold. Wish me luck:

Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans (+2.5)

Yup, I got this one wrong even in hindsight.

Cleveland Browns over Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

Another classic frisk-off! I hate to pick against my boy Ryan Friskpatrick (who Rich Eisen tweeted has been nicknamed "The Amish Rifle" by his teammates). My friend made an interesting point about why he hates the Browns. "They don't have a real logo – they have a [expletive] helmet as their [expletive] logo. What the [expletive]." It was a valid point, and I'm from New Jersey.

Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions (+6.5)

Cincinatti Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Is Mike Shanahan going to make it to season three? Good coaches don't have to win ten games in their first year after inheriting a mess, but they should absolutely inject some frisk into them. The Buccaneers were awful at the beginning of last season, earned some frisk as the season went on and are a borderline playoff team this year. Shanahan had only one playoff win in ten season in Denver after John Elway retired, and this year's Redskins seem to be getting worse each week.

Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers (+7.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)

New Orleans Saints (-8.5) over St. Louis Rams

Very tough to say right now who should be coach of the year. Steve Spagnuolo and Bill Belichick are the frontrunners with Raheem Morris and Mike Smith close behind. The winner will probably be Spagnuolo if the Rams make the playoffs, but it's just as impressive that Morris is keeping the Bucs competitive in the brutal NFC South. I still don't think the Falcons are very good and I think their record is inflated. I think a quality team could expose them (like what the Patriots did to the Jets last week).

New England Patriots over Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Miami Dolphins over New York Jets (-6.5)

Denver Broncos over Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants over Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

Baltimore Ravens over Houston Texans (+3.5)

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

One of my friends pointed out that if the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice, the Eagles will probably miss the playoffs. Even if Dallas only beats Philly once, the Eagles will still probably have to win the rest of their games to avoid missing the playoffs. So, it's not quite the same as playing in the Super Bowl on your home field, but I'll take it.

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 79-113. Yes, I'm seriously 34 games under .500. But at least I did better than the CBS studio hosts (Dan Marino, Bill Cowher, Boomer Esiason and Shannon Sharpe) who went a combined 3-61 against the spread. Yes, they really did. 3-61!!!! No one was better than 1-15 and Boomer was 0-16!

Midterms

No time to write a real NFL picks column today since I have a midterm tomorrow and I haven't started studying yet. Dan said last week's column was week anyway. I liked it, but his standards are impossibly high due to his own award-winning blog Fundamentally Roundd, in which he frequently comments on the link between rye bread, sriracha sauce, and reasonably priced produce.

Last week I went 7-6 after picking exclusively based on Frisk. Sadly, this was my first week all year where I was better than .500. Home teams in bold, wish me luck:

Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over Chicago Bears

Ryan Friskpatrick lives!

New England Patriots (-4.5) over Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions (+4.5) over New York Jets

Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) over Arizona Cardinals

New Orleans Saints (-7.5) over Carolina Panthers

Miami Dolphins (-5.5) over Baltimore Ravens

San Diego Chargers over Houston Texans (+1.5)

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over New York Giants

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

The aesthetics for this game are going to be awesome.

Indianapolis Colts over Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinatti Bengals (+4.5)

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is still getting too much love from Vegas. A 1-6 team with no secondary and no way to protect its quarterback (who is Jon Kitna, by the way) will not do well against Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews. Roy E. Williams said this week that he thinks Dallas can run the table, finish 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs. I'm just excited to have Cowher or Gruden next year. I looked at the numbers for the two coaches, and I can honestly say that I'm indifferent between the two:

Jon Gruden: 47 years old, 100-85 (career .540 win pctg), 1 Super Bowl title

Bill Cowher: 53 years old, 149-90-1 (career .623 win pctg), 1 Super Bowl title

Cowher's more accomplished, but slightly older and I think Gruden would be hungrier.

The Frisk Index, Volume 1

Rappers routinely make up sequels or prequels to mixtapes. During my senior year of high school, my friends and I put together a mixtape titled Mixtape Part III Volume 2 because it was nonsensical enough to mimic reality. Basically, what I'm saying is don't expect the next edition of these rankings to make sense.

In fact, this edition of these rankings might not make sense. The point of the Frisk Index is based on the following idea: bad NFL teams sometimes give good teams a hard time. For example, last week, Buffalo was able to take Baltimore to overtime. Some people say that this makes Buffalo a frisky team. My friends and I don't do this. Instead, we will yell "THERE IS FRISK IN BUFFALO" at each other and laugh, because that's what friends do. No joke is too bad to get bailed out.

Since I think power rankings are pointless for sports with an actual playoff system, I decided to make the Frisk Index. The Frisk Index ranks how frisky the worst teams in the league are. Plus, my picks suck, so I'd like to comb over the rest of this column and hide them wherever I can.

One quick story before jumping into the index: After the Monday night game was done, I was leading my fantasy game 94.1-94.0. A win by one yard! Since there are no games after the Monday night game, I assumed this meant I won. I signed in today to update my roster and saw that Dan's score got revised upward and he was declared the winner 96-94.1. Daggers all around.

The Index is ranked 1-10, with 10 being the friskiest:

San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota, Cincinnati: These teams have no frisk. Super Bowl contenders who lose games due to stupid mistakes do not count as frisky no matter how many games below .500 they are. As a Cowboys fan, I'm blaming this entire season on Jessica Simpson…'s continued refusal to answer my calls. She also gets a zero for friskiness. Frisk Index Score: 0

Arizona, Seattle, Chicago: Teams with winning records that are actually awful get low Frisk scores. Frisk Index Score: 1

Detroit, St. Louis: They have low Frisk Index scores because there is a certain amount of flukiness that is involved in being a frisky team, and these two teams are extremely well coached and will be above .500 next year. This makes them friskless. The Lions and Rams only have bad records because of injuries and a few bizarre endings – each is actually a wild card team disguised as a frisky squad. Steve Spagnuolo and Jim Schwartz have done a great job resurrecting their respective franchises.

I'm not sure if it's more impressive to take a crappy team and restore it to respectability or take a talented team deep into the playoffs. For example, Bill Parcells turned around horrible situations in New England, New York, Dallas and Miami but never won a title in any of those places. These teams had an average of 2.25 wins the year before Parcells arrived and each was a playoff team within two years. On the other hand, Phil Jackson takes highly talented teams and wins titles. Could Phil do the same thing in New Jersey or Minnesota? And, if Parcells is so good, why does Belichick have more rings than him? The point is, Dan's car was actually purchased from Auerbach and Sons Used Nissan Dealership in Philadelphia, which allowed me to make a million horrible jokes about the winningest Used Nissan Dealership of all time. FRIENDS MUST LAUGH AT MY JOKES OR I WILL SOB QUIETLY IN THE CORNER!!!! Frisk Index Score: 2

Carolina, San Francisco: These two teams actually had a frisk-off last week in which Carolina outfrisked San Francisco. I like John Fox and Mike Singletary as coaches, but they haven't been able to deliver like the pizza man, which I'm only mentioning because something like 85% of Drake's rap includes references to pizza. Frisk Index Score: 3

Denver, Jacksonville: These teams suck, but they are also REALLY boring. I can't imagine writing a sentence about them, let alone reading one. Frisk Index Score: 4

Oakland: I want to say a couple of nice things about ESPN. First, their TrueHoop NBA blog is fantastic, and I highly recommend it. Second, Tim Cowlishaw broke out a killer Al Davis impression on Around the Horn a few days ago. It's easy to hate on ESPN, but I don't want it to be formulaic hate. Frisk Index Score: 5

Cleveland: In order to have a high score on the Frisk Index, you need to lack talent and direction as a franchise. The Browns beat the defending champs last week because of two interception return touchdowns by a defensive lineman. The Browns deserve an award for Continued Excellence in Frisk due to the fact that they have beaten the defending Super Bowl Champion for three straight seasons. I wish I had an award for Continued Excellence in Frisk, but the ladies still won't show me love. Even with my UNICEF box! Frisk Index Score: 8.5

There is frisk in Cleveland! But there is even more frisk in…

Buffalo/Oklahoma City/Los Angeles/Anaheim/Toronto/Shelbyville: There is so much frisk in Buffalo right now. Any time Ryan Friskpatrick leads you to 34 points in Baltimore with no talent around him, or in him, and Chan Gailey as a coach, you know you're getting a high frisk score. Frisk Index Score: 10

I'm 39-66 for the season and went 4-10 again last week. Not good. Home teams in bold, and wish me luck. I'm making my picks this week based exclusively on Frisk:

Miami Dolphins over Cincinatti Bengals (-2.5)

Detroit Lions (-2.5) over Washington Redskins

Buffalo Bills over Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

If I were picking on a non-frisk basis, I would take the Chiefs. Kansas City has a chance to win a playoff game since they'll probably get the fourth seed in the AFC, meaning that the awesome Arrowhead crowd will be in full force in the first round. I love the Kansas City crowd, but only in a platonic way. I remain firmly opposed to dipole-dipole atomic bonding. IT'S ADAM AND EVE, NOT ADAM AND DIPOLE!!!!!

St Louis Rams (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers

New York Jets (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers

Denver Broncos over San Francisco 49ers (-.5)

San Diego Chargers (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots (-5.5) over Minnesota Vikings

Oakland Raiders (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers over New Orleans Saints (-.5)

Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars over Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

With Michigan and Dallas both collapsing, the only thing I have left in my life is my friends, family, health and the New Jersey Nets. If the Nets beat the Heat tonight, the road to the Finals comes through Newark.

Last Week: 4-10
Season: 39-66

America’s Game of the Week

Three important events happened in the last five days:

1. Mark Schlereth delivered a devastating takedown of Roger Goodell's hypocrisy on SportsCenter on Tuesday. I frequently make fun of Schlereth, but I dislike when blogs become snarky or sarcastic as part of a schtick and refuse to admit when they were wrong. I am not a fan of Schlereth's analysis of football games but credit must be given where due. The league's refusal to pay for players' healthcare costs after March and its insistence on an 18 game schedule contradict its newfound desire to mitigate the effects of concussions. Kudos to Schlereth. At least he wasn't like Dennis Miller, who during his time as a Monday Night Football broadcaster was unable to comment on a football game without a joke involving the connection between socialism, Jean-Paul Sartre and short yardage situations.
   
2. Bill Simmons used a hilarious Jon Gruden impression in his column, which means I have to retire mine.
   
3. My roommate Neil decided to alter his diet so that it matches his girlfriend's. As far as I can tell, she eats nothing but allergens. Our cabinets are now filled with peanut butter, grass clippings, rag weed, and pollen.
   

Here are some more points which follow numbers, because it is lazy writing:

1. Halloween is coming up next week. I was thinking of going as Waldo, but I realized that he's one of the dirtiest hipsters in all of child literature. Waldo wears skinny jeans, a horizontal striped shirt, thick glasses and a goofy hat. He also has a cane. Plus, like all hipsters, he's always trying to be seen without being seen. You know, the whole "LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT ME…can't believe you're looking at me" mentality. I saw Waldo at a Hanson concert last week, which he presumably attended due to the irony.
   
2. I have a friend who is dressing as Lara Croft, Tomb Raider for Halloween. I guess that's all right except it ruins my plans to dress as Lara Croftman, D.D.S. – one of the most badass yet sexy dentists of all time.
   
3. I participated in an info session recently in which upperclassmen answer questions that freshmen and sophomores have about the internship application process. One panelist commented that during her performance review last summer her manager kept telling her to "be proactive", so I made a joke about acne when she was done speaking. She has clear skin so it wasn't mean. Still, I got nothing but crickets. Another awful joke:
   
4. My friend Vadim and I were making plans to throw around a football a few days ago, but his text said he had to "get his landry first". I immediately pounced on his typo with this response: "LaRon? Yeah he can come too. (groan)" I groaned at my own joke because I knew it sucked, but if I didn't make it then it would have fermented inside of me and became a joke that was 100x worse. Probably something about socialism, Jean-Paul Sartre and short yardage situations.
   

The Dallas Cowboys and I did not fare well last week. I fell to last place in my league after going 4-10, and Dallas's season appears to be over. I'm putting myself on the hot seat and I'm probably going to fire myself after the season. True story – I actually forgot to click one of the games when I submitted my picks. I was trying to think of a metaphor for my sloppiness, but I can't stop thinking of Sasha Vuijaicic.

Home teams in bold. Wish me luck:

Cincinatti Bengals over Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Washington Redskins over Chicago Bears (-2.5)

The Falcons and Bears are bad teams with records which are inflated due to unlikely wins. The Bengals' helmets look like bad combovers, but still.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

It's a shame that this game is in Tennessee because then the game would be on CBS in the Philly area. As you know, Fox covers NFC games and CBS provides low quality video which presumably contains AFC game footage embedded somewhere in it. Anyway, in the case of interconference games, the road team's network gets to carry the game. I kind of like when this happens because it's like taking a vacation from reality (like growing a moustache or becoming unstuck in space-time).

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Miami's going to make Pittsburgh wear its black uniforms in South Florida heat, which I imagine will make the vaunted Steelers mildly uncomfortable. I am basing my pick solely on this observation. Did I mention I'm in last place in my picks league?

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) over Cleveland Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) over St. Louis Rams

This matchup was Patriots-Colts before Patriots-Colts was Patriots-Colts. Expect Jacquez Green to have a breakout game.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)

John Fox is having the worst contract year since King John in 1215. That's right, a Magna Carta joke! Dennis Miller lives, baby!!!!!!!!

Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) over Oklahoma City Bills

I feel horrible for Buffalo fans and the team's owner, Ralph Wilson. Wilson is 92 years old and recently said something to the effect of "I may not be around by the time we start winning again".

Arizona Cardinals over Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)

Fox always puts the best NFC matchup of the week at 4 pm. Last week, they debuted the title "America's Game of the Week" for the marquee game. I wasn't against it since the title made sense – Dallas at Minnesota was a big game. This week, Arizona at Seattle is the 4 pm game…and Fox has hilariously refused to promote it as America's Game of the Week. My guess is that they put this game together at the last minute before it was due and forgot to include the title page.

San Diego Chargers (-2.5) over New England Patriots

I will continue to hate on the Pats due to my loyalty to Randy Moss. Moss changed his number back to 84 since rejoining the Vikings, and I always wondered why players pick certain numbers. I always root for convoluted stories like "Well, I chose the number 7 due to its representation of pH neutrality, which is also in line with my Swiss ancestry."

Denver Broncos (-6.5) over Oakland Raiders

Minnesota Vikings over Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Two great rivalries with great aesthetics. That's pretty much all I ask for in sports.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) over New York Giants

I can't believe that Vegas keeps giving the Cowboys love even though we suck. I am looking forward to Week 17, when the 1-14 Cowboys are 10.5 point favorites over the Eagles in the season finale.

Last Week: 4-10

Overall: 35-53 (but I really am a huge NFL fan, I swear. Vegas is just better than me.)

Rain , Sleet, Snow, Hail

Last week I decided it would be cool to do an entire column where I respond to reader mail. The problem is, my readership is zero. It used to be much wider but thanks to audience fragmentation, cable television and the blogosphere, my blog is currently read by maybe ten people. Double digits though!

I asked the ten people who read this blog to come up with questions and ask me them. Pathetic? Yes. But still, I've never responded to mail before and it seems fun. Since Fundamentally Soundd is a family-friendly blog, I screened questions for content and was forced to delete several questions plus a few pictures Dan texted me. Here's the best of what they came up with:

When do you think people on ESPN will stop acting surprised when the Cowboys keep losing?

I hate my friends.

I am an avid reader of your blog and have been betting large sums of money in Las Vegas based upon your NFL predictions and am now almost broke. What gives?

I am never asking my friends for suggestions ever again.

Most underrated historical figure that was a gunslinger?

It's been a long time since I've written about gunslinging. The most underrated historical gunslinger is the caveman who decided to drink milk from a different animal. Jerry Seinfeld had a great bit about this – "Was this guy looking at these udders thinking…'I can't wait to get a hit of that!'" I'd love to see Mark Schlereth and the gang break down Unknown Caveman's ability to milksling "just like a little kid out there".

Mark: "guys, if you want protein in your diet in this era…YOU HAVE TO BE WILLING TO TAKE SHOTS DOWN THE FIELD."

The NFL Network was running one if its awesome "America's Game" documentaries, and I recently watched one which chronicled the 1998 Denver Broncos. They showed a few clips of Terrell Davis and asked Mark Schlereth to describe his teammate. Mark said, in all seriousness, "THAT GUY…was a FOOTBALL PLAYER. [stares into camera]".

Should Brett Favre switch to maybe a smaller number…?

This question is funnier than any joke I can possibly make about it. Sometimes, you just have to know when not to remix a classic. I almost wrote "when to not remix a classic", but I'm all about not splitting infinitives now. Splitting infinitives used to be cool, but now I can only enjoy it ironically.

The new name for the Nets?

I remember reading "Brooklyn Bridges" somewhere, which I'm a huge fan of for several reasons. First, it's a name which is unique to the area. The Brooklyn Bridge is iconic. I hate when a team tries to be "fierce" with its nickname – it's the ugly sibling of being "sleek" with its uniform. Second, it hints at the potential international appeal of the team now that Mikhail Prokharov is in charge.

NFL Fever on XBOX was a lot of fun because it melded the best elements of Blitz and Madden. NFL Herpes on XBOX was way less fun, and I can see why Microsoft pulled the plug on its line of football games. Anyway, in that game (I think) you were able to play as a team dressed in suits and ties called the Lawyers or something. Similarly, my friend Steve and I had the idea to start a football team in Williamsburg named the Brooklyn Hipsters. Our home uniforms would be cutoff jhorts and undersized Christian Laettner Dream Team jerseys. Dov Charney Memorial Stadium would be packed for two weeks, but then people would stop showing up because we were too popular. Then, in five seasons, people would be fans of the franchise again because we were vintage.

The concession stands would sell nothing but moonshine and beef jerky. We'd play songs from Rocky on the P.A. system because we're not from Philadelphia (this is actually something that real franchises do that I cannot stand. Rocky was not from San Antonio, Mr. Spurs Audio Guy).

Segway President dies falling off a cliff on a Segway? What is the most ironic death ever?

This was actually a bit sad. The man, Jimi Heselden, was a billionaire philanthropist who apparently did a lot of great things for his hometown. He smoothly transitioned into being the president of Segway from being the president of something unrelated in a way which did not seem forced.

Best fantasy team name you've heard?

This is very, very difficult. I'm reminded of the classic Simpsons quote in the episode where Homer joins a barbershop quartet. He and his three friends are looking for a band name, and they agree that it has to be something "which is clever at first, but gets progressively less clever every time you hear it." All fantasy names are like that, even the best ones.

What's a better system: a regular season where individual games are essentially meaningless and only the playoffs matter (the team has to get hot at the right time) or one in which EVERY game counts (EPL, college football) and your season can end if you mess up in the first game of the season? I think that the former system is more in line with the American spirit of the underdog always has a shot, otherwise we would still remember the 2007 Pats as the greatest ever. What do you think?

Interesting question. I love the life-or-death nature of college football but it's tough to top NFL playoff weekends. The MLB regular season is horrible, but I love how baseball only allows four teams into its postseason every year. MLB postseason membership is pretty elitist. Most of the teams only got in because their respective dads went there. I WAS PRESIDENT OF THE PAN-ASIAN ROTARY COMMUNITY SERVICE RED CROSS CLUB AND I DIDN'T GET INTO THE MLB POSTSEASON!!!!!!

…..

I really enjoyed the questions, so thanks to my friends for coming up with them. Keep them coming. In my picks league, I had another terrible week and went 6-8. Dan is two picks ahead of Vadim for the top spot, and I'm eight behind Dan. I won the championship last year and my title defense continues to suck, though I've always been a fan of the phrase "Super Bowl Hangover" because I can pretend that Sean Payton was blackout drunk during the title game. Hopefully I start to get hot in Week 6. Home teams are in bold, wish me luck:

Chicago Bears (-6.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Can't trust an NFC West team on the road.

Baltimore Ravens over New England Patriots (-2.5)

Justin Bieber actually made fun of Tom Brady's hair this week. The rap lyrics in which he did it were completely nonsensical – the line to set up the Brady diss was "Sacked like a sacker." Believing in the Patriots right now is similar to liking Nutella or MGMT; defensibly quirky, but not really bold.

New York Giants (-10.5) over Detroit Lions

The Giants' running game and defense has been so impressive recently that Manning threw three picks last week, on the road against a great offense, and the team still won by 24 points. I assume The Book of Eli was mostly just Denzel wandering around in the desert and throwing interceptions.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) over Atlanta Falcons

The Eagles are the best team in the NFC right now, and the Falcons are a complete fraud. This team could easily be 2-3 if it weren't for two plays: Nate Clements pulling a Marlon McCree and Garrett Hartley missing a 29 yard field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) over Cleveland Browns

Colt McCoy is an awesome name for a gunslinging quarterback, but sadly Colt McCoy was apparently born without bones in his right shoulder. I think he'll be injured by halftime, then Josh Cribbs will come in and play admirably in a losing effort. I would love this situation because it reminds of the few times per year when a random utility infielder has to be a relief pitcher in baseball because the manager already used the other pitchers.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) over Miami Dolphins

Big statement game for the Packers. I feel like too many people have hopped off the Green Bay bandwagon. This team is good enough to make the Super Bowl and lose by twenty to Pittsburgh. I live with a Steelers fan and he's gonna be walkin' around here like Scuba Steve braggin' about how much action he got once the Steelers win the title.

San Diego Chargers over St. Louis Rams (+8.5)

The Chargers are the anti-Falcons in the sense that they should be 4-1 if it wasn't for special teams debacles in Seattle and Oakland. I believe in "football efficiency", in that whichever team won a given game was the better team and deserved to win. Is this contradictory? Yes, and doublethink is doubleplusungood.

Tampa Bay Bucs (+5.5) over New Orleans Saints

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans (-4.5)

I'm all over the Chiefs bandwagon. Great uniforms too – simple, classic, elegant.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Oakland Raiders

David Carr, Jesse Palmer, Jim Sorgi, Jared Lorenzen, Danny Kannell, Kent Graham, Dave Brown, Kurt Warner, Kerry Collins. Random Giants backups from over the years.

New York Jets over Denver Broncos (+3.5)

In 2008, Brett Favre led the Jets to a win over the previously undefeated Titans to get the Jets to 8-4 and everyone thought the Jets were on their way to winning the AFC. The next week, they got slaughtered by the Broncos in the Meadowlands and the season soon fell apart. Last week, the Jets had a similarly huge win and people like me think that they're the second best team in the league. I don't think they're gonna blow it this time. Jets win big.

In fact, the league hierarchy looks so different than it did for the last decade. Basically, each year, the Colts and Pats were the top two teams in the regular season and it surprising when one of them didn't win the title. Here's how the league looks now:

Tier One: Steelers, Jets, Ravens (in order)
Tier Two: Colts, Patriots
Tier Three: Chiefs, Texans, Saints, Chargers, Titans Packers, Eagles, Giants, Falcons (not in order)
Tier Four: Bucs, Redskins, Vikings, Bears

Surprising, but the gap between Tier One and the rest of the league is huge.

Indianapolis Colts over Washington Redskins (+3.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over Tennessee Titans

And the game of the week:

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) over Minnesota Vikings

I'm only picking the Cowboys because they're my favorite team. I fully expect Randy Moss to single-handedly eviscerate Dallas the way he has done since 1998, and I expect Bill Cowher to be the Cowboys' coach by halftime.

Last Week: 6-8
Season: 31-43

The Gunslinger

The allegations against Brett Favre aren't pretty. Favre's supposed actions are gross, but I have to say I'm a little impressed that he knows how to text pictures to people. I can imagine Favre's train of thought: "ok…share picture…as email? No, I'll just MMS her…chicks dig MMS…". Too bad the women in question didn't have iPhones, because from what I understand Favre actually send the lewd images in the form of an elaborate Flash video as a meta-comment on Apple's unseemly refusal to carry the popular multimedia platform.

The main reason the Favre story is so interesting is the bind in which the NFL finds itself. I thought Peyton Manning was the face of the NFL, but a June 2010 poll by Harris Interactive showed that Brett Favre is actually America's favorite football player. Favre's misconduct, if true, is disgusting. But will the NFL have the stones to suspend its sacred cow?

The second reason the Favre scandal is so interesting is because every NFL pundit in the country was just told that Santa Claus doesn't exist. Favre has been the media's favorite player for a long time, and every Favre apologist now has egg all over his face. I imagine the media will react as follows:

Mark Schlereth: "(lowers voice) guys, if I'm heading into a fight in a dark alley...(raises voice) I STILL TAKE BRETT FAVRE, because MOST fights...99.9% OF THE TIME…require someone to take pictures of his [expletive]."

Jon Gruden: "If I'm Brad Childress…I find a way to GET. THIS. GUY. INVOLVED. THIS GUY. CAN STILL. MAKE PLAYS. Jaws?"

Ron Jaworski: "Guys, I had a chance to break down the video of Favre's alleged misconduct in the film room this week. From the goal line cam, we can see Favre change the camera settings from sepia to color at the last moment. The defense is slow to adjust out of its base 4-3 defense. Fullback Naufahu Tahi is able to get a chip block on good judgement, giving Favre time to sling some [expletive] at a female employee. By choosing to send the picture as a high resolution image, Favre shows that he's still the gunslinger of old and is not afraid to use data out there. Great execution from the future Hall of Famer."

Keith Olbermann: "SIR HAVE YOU NO SHAME SIR? SIR WHEREFORE ART THOU WHENCEFORTH ERGO MORROW, SIR????"

Glenn Beck: "(uncontrollable sobbing in front of a chalkboard connecting Favre's [expletive], the United Auto Workers, Karl Marx, TARP and Nancy Pelosi)."

Rick Reilly: "Hey guys, remember Kelly Clarkson? I mean, am I right?"

On an unrelated note, Jason Whitlock has been the most consistently hilarious/insightful writer in 2010 and his Favre article was great. Whitlock has been calling Rick Reilly "RiMarcus Reilly" since Reilly signed an enormous contract with ESPN just to write crappy articles which read like mad-libs based on pop-culture from 2005. Rick Reilly probably doesn't abuse codeine though, so the comparison breaks down after a while.

Whatever was left of Favre's image as an aw-shucks, good ol' southern boy was pretty much shattered by his decision to drop his Wranglers and take some pictures. Peter King tweeted that the issue wasn't that Favre was hitting on these women, but that he sent them lewd pictures. I disagree. It would be a slightly different story if the women weren't Jets employees and some consensual gunslinging had occurred. Favre would still be a jerk for cheating on his wife, but at least then he wouldn't have been a creeper. But this is not the case. You can't be harassing people at work, especially since the women already rejected Favre before he persisted and sent the photos. He deserves a suspension assuming the allegations are true.

Final thoughts on the Favre issue: THAT IS A DISGUSTING ACT BY RANDY MOSS!!!

I treaded water in my picks league last week, but my friend Dan is slowly pulling away. He's the leader with a record of 32-30, which is seven games better than me. Home teams in bold. Wish me luck:

Oklahoma City Bills (+1.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Love the Bills home fans. Plus, Buffalo was able to keep things close against Miami and New England, and the Jaguars are not as good as either of those teams. The Jets are the league's second best team, so there is no shame in losing to them by three touchdowns. I will take a shot of Polish cherry liqueur out of a bowling ball if the Bills win this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

Atlanta Falcons over Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

St. Louis Rams over Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs over Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)

I actually like the Chiefs and Rams this year – two well-coached teams who don't beat themselves. Two weird plays have prevented the Colts from being 4-0 this season: Austin Collie's fumble in the Texans game and the tipped interception in the Jaguars game. Still, I think the Colts only win this one by a field goal.

Washington Redskins (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers

Here are the keys to the game for the Skins according the Darryl Johnston: Limit turnovers, pressure Aaron Rodgers, and make big plays when they are available. Make sure Mike McCarthy doesn't get those before the game Moose – you might blow Shanahan's entire game plan. Let's check in with Tony Siragusa down on the field:

"GUYS I CAN'T TELL YOU HOW LOUD IT IS DOWN HERE!!!"

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) over Chicago Bears

I kind of like how Chicago's football and basketball teams are called the Bulls and Bears, respectively. Respectively, damnit!!! That kind of means "each".

Denver Broncos over Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

Baltimore has the best pass defense in the league, but they played against the Jets (before Sanchez got good), Bengals (Palmer sucks) and Steelers (love Charlie Batch, but come on). Denver has the best passing offense and should be able to keep this close.

Terrelle Pryor (-3.5) over Denard Robinson

I'm still bummed out over Michigan's loss to Michigan State yesterday. Denard Robinson had an awful game and Ohio State's Pryor is now the favorite to win the Heisman. Two new reasons to hate Ohio State more than I already did: More family ties to Michigan as of September 2010 and LeBron James won't stop tweeting about how awesome his Buckeyes are.

New York Giants over Houston Texans (-3.5)

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over New Orleans Saints

San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (+6.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans

Need to align my gambling and rooting interests. Hopefully Dallas wins and the Eagles lose.

New York Jets (-4.5) over Minnesota Vikings

As I wrote last week, I am a huge Randy Moss supporter. He's the most thoughtful and interesting player in the league. Why? Because when every player gives some boring variant on "We just gotta execute out there", Moss says what he thinks. I hope he goes into broadcasting when he retires – he could easily be the Charles Barkley of the NFL. I want Moss to put up 20 touchdowns over the next 13 games and the Patriots' offense to crash. Wes Welker is a great slot receiver…but then, Todd Bouman was a great quarterback when he got to play with Randy Moss.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 25-37.

Less is More

Earlier this week, Indianapolis Colts President Bill Polian said that an 18-game schedule was a "fait acompli". I'm surprised Polian is whining to change the rules, since it's not like the Colts lost to the New England 16GameSeasons in last year's postseason. Anyway, I sincerely hope the players' union shows some resolve and refuses to agree to the expanded season.

Product dilution is the reason no one my age cares about the NHL or MLB. The NFL doesn't have this problem yet. Let's hope it stays that way.

I had another awful picks week in Week 3, going 6-10 and falling five games back of the leader. I need to put together a rich, gorgeous week – empty of the post glo-fi melodrama and dark irony which defined the past decade. The last sentence is what I imagine it would look like if hipster music website Pitchfork made NFL picks. Week 4, wish me luck:

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Pickup football games are determined by talent, but NFL games are determined by organization and execution. Mike Smith is part of a Baltimore coaching lineage which includes Rex Ryan and Marvin Lewis. Mike Singletary believes that pants are optional. Lots of people make jokes about how Singletary looks a little like a turtle, but they have to remember that his ability to avoid pelicans and make it to the ocean shortly after his birth is what made him one of the greatest linebackers in NFL history.

In all seriousness, I watched an NFL Films show where Singletary, Smith, Ryan, Lewis, Jack Del Rio and John Harbaugh were seated at a round table and spent half an hour discussing Ray Lewis. The show, like everything ever made by NFL Films, was fantastic. I think Singletary is a good defensive coach and excellent motivator, but his offense is chronically underprepared - which is similar to being acutely underprepared but it lasts longer.

New York Jets over The Los Angeles Bills of Anaheim and Toronto (+5.5)

In our picks league, there are a few games which everyone picks the same way. For example, no one picked the Jaguars to cover against Philadelphia last week. This means that only four or five games have enough variance to generate differentiation in the overall picks standings. Early on in the season, there is no need to take on excessive risk and "try to be a hero". If I'm still five or six games back in Week 17, I'll have to pick ridiculous upsets and hope I get lucky. What I'm saying is, there's no way I'm picking the Bills in Week 4.

I remember a few years ago, after the Sonics left Seattle, everyone was rightfully disgusted with the NBA. We might have been disgusted by the NBA, but most of us weren't sure if the correct phrasing is "disgusted with" or "disgusted by". Still, I feel horrible for Buffalo and I sincerely hope those fans get to keep their team. I was never a Bills fan, but those fans and those old school jerseys ('90s, not '70s) generated so many happy memories for me as a kid. I remember Thurman Thomas's goofy facemask and Wade "Rob Johnson is a Good Idea" Phillips making horrible decisions. I remember Marv Levy and Frank Reich and the ridiculous Oilers/Bills playoff game – not because I watched it, but because it's canonized in NFL lore. And, you'd have to be heartless not to love small market teams with devoted fan bases. Did you know that there is a Bills fan named Ken Johnson who has been giving away free shots of Polish cherry liqueur during his Orchard Park tailgates for the last twenty years? If the Bills move and the NFL expands to 18 games, I'd improbably hate NFL management more than I hate NBA management. Actually, Stu Jackson will probably suspend Kevin Garnett for breathing on LeBron James for Game 7 of next year's Eastern Conference Finals, so he'll still be worse. But it will be close.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Green Bay Packers (-14.5) over Detroit Lions

If the Lions were healthy, I'd pick them to cover.

Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

During the promos for last week's Colts-Broncos game, the voiceover said something like "Manning and Orton prepare for a duel in Denver!" Orton's not bad, but I don't think he belongs in the same sentence as Manning. He probably doesn't even belong in the same language. If that promo were written in Cyrillic, then it might be acceptable.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams (+.5)

This game could cause an existential crisis in St. Louis if fans extrapolate the meaninglessness of this game to life in general. Aujourd'hu, le Premier Show du Turf est morte. Ou peut etre hier, je ne sais pas.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) over Carolina Panthers

I expect a blowout.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Finally, a game worth writing about. The Steelers have been the most impressive team in the league through three weeks. I originally picked the Ravens in this game before flip-flopping. I thought that it would be too difficult for Charlie Batch to play well against the Ravens' defense, but then I realized that the Steelers' defense is better than Baltimore's and Batch is better than Flacco. Plus, teams have been able to run on Baltimore this year.

Announcers will say things like "YOU BETTER STRAP ON YOUR HELMETS FOR A BRAWL IN PITTSBURGH!!!" What bothers me is that if Green Bay played New Orleans, they'd be fetishizing "TWO TEAMS WHO CAN REALLY SCORE ON YA! IT'LL BE A BARNBURNER!!!!" What do announcers really like? I feel as if they're cheating on me. Dan Dierdorf, you broke my heart.

Intelligent Design over Evolution (+3.5)

Manatees and Wade Phillips are what caused me to question evolution this week. Come on, have you ever seen a manatee? All they do is float there like idiots and eat all day and get hit by boats. I have similar arguments for Wade Phillips. Unless manatees were playing in the NFC West, there's no way they could possibly be considered the "fittest" of anything.

Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5)

Houston Texans over Oakland Raiders (+3.5)

Arizona Cardinals over San Diego Chargers (-8.5)

Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Rooting for the Redskins here, so I might as well pick them.

New York Giants (-3.5) over Chicago Bears

The talking heads on Around the Horn this week were lauding the Bears for being "THE LAST UNDEFEATED TEAM IN THE NFC! YOU GUYS DON'T UNDERSTAND FOOTBALLL!!!!!!". The Bears could easily be 1-2.

Miami Dolphins (-.5) over New England Patriots

Any team that gives up 30 points to Buffalo needs help on defense. I love Tom Brady's Michigan connection. Denard Robinson has brought me enough happiness to take the edge off of each Cowboys loss.

One final note: my friends and I are going to Atlantic City on Thursday night for fall break. Hopefully I can get a few good
stories out of it.

Last Week: 6-10

Season: 18-30

The Princeton Offense

Pete Caril, the head coach of the Princeton Tigers basketball team for thirty seasons, developed what is known as the Princeton Offense. The scheme calls for exceptionally well coached players to execute intricately designed plays with precision. Jason Garrett, the offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys and a Princeton graduate, has a slight variant of this with my beloved Cowboys in which poorly coached players wander around aimlessly with 8:1 Super Bowl odds and "Yakkity Sax" playing in the background.

The Cowboys' offense has become stale and predictable. "Predictable" is a word more closely associated with the Eagles' offense, though I think "creepy" fits for them as well since Andy Reid usually opts to distribute candy to children from unmarked vans on third and short. He later challenges his ability to do so, and invariably loses.

I'm three games back of the leader in my picks league after a reasonable 8 win performance in Week 2. Home teams in bold:

San Francisco over Kansas City (+2.5)

I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs before the season started. Granted, I made the pick in 2009, but still. I could have just acted like every economist and financial analyst of the last two years and said I'm "cautiously optimistic" about the Chiefs future. Why? Because if things go well, I can point to my optimism; if not, I will remind you that I was cautious this whole time anyway. I hate CNBC.

Baltimore (-10.5) over Cleveland

Josh Cribbs and Jerome Harrison are both questionable today, making a terrible offense even worse. Eric Mangini almost had a great coaching career – in his first season, he beat the Pats once and led the Jets to an unlikely playoff berth. After his second season was marred by a slew of injuries, his season three team started off 8-4 and beat the then-undefeated Tennessee Titans by 3 touchdowns in Week 12. Mangini was in commercials for cell phones in the tri-state area. Soon, Favre hurt his elbow, the Jets collapsed, and Mangini got fired. Now he's in Cleveland and he'll probably be fired after this season. Mangini will have won something like six games over two years by the time this season ends – making him the early favorite to be hired by Buffalo in 2012.

Houston (-2.5) over Dallas

I used to say that I would never pick against Dallas since I didn't want conflicting gambling/rooting interests. I looked through the rest of their schedule, and Dallas could finish 4-12 if they get a couple of lucky breaks, but 2-14 is more likely.

Detroit (-10.5) over Minnesota

Jason Whitlock and Bill Simmons have been pushing the idea that Favre would rather be in Mississippi than Minnesota. Since they are the only two sportswriters I read regularly, they hold a disproportionate amount of influence in the way I think about sports, barbecue and season 2 of "90210". Detroit is another reason for Clevelanders to feel crummy about their sports team. The Lions hired a hungry coach instead of a retread and have a nucleus of Stafford, Johnson and Suh around which they can build.

New England (-13.5) over Buffalo

Actually, Clevelanders can feel good that they aren't Bills fans. As Mark Schlereth might say, "(leans in quietly) chan gailey strikes me as a coach who has lost the hearts and minds of this football team. (loudly) THAT'S NOT HOW YOU WIN FOOTBALL GAMES IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!!!!"

New Orleans (-4.5) over Atlanta

It's possible that the 2010 Falcons are like the 2009 Bengals – a team whose games I pick incorrectly for 15 games.

Tennessee over New York Giants (-3.5)

The Giants defense is horrible and I wouldn't trust Eli Manning to cover this spread or perform quadruple bypass surgery. Only one of these trust issues is relevant, but Eli and I should do trust falls just in case.

Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay (+2.5)

I think the Bucs changed the color of their pants, which is a huge reason for me to pick against them. If my Mark Schlereth Quote Generator is something like "(soft, pseudo-political statement dripping with morality transitioning into LOUD PSEUDO-POLITICAL STATEMENT DRIPPING WITH MORALITY!!!)" then my Jon Gruden Quote Generator is "(nonsense nonsense nonsense cliché cliché nonsense, Jaws?)". For example, "Guys, I'm not so sure that that the BUCS PANTS don't change…the CULTURE OF THAT LOCKER ROOM….Jaws?". Gruden used to be my favorite coach after his amazing work in Oakland and Tampa Bay, and I honestly hope that Jerry Jones throws $50 million at him or Cowher to come coach the Cowboys. But that doesn't change the fact that Gruden is the worst analyst on TV.

Cincinatti over Carolina (+3.5)
Oakland over Arizona (-4.5)

I will not be watching either of these games

Philadelphia over the Los Angeles Jaguars (+2.5)

I can't wait for the Los Angeles Jaguars to play the Toronto Bills in London in Week 18 of the 2013 season. Thank you Roger Goodell for ruining everything.

Washington Redskins over St. Louis Rams (+3.5)

I think Sam Bradford has looked decent through two weeks, but then, so did Ryan Leaf. Ryan Leaf has become the Hitler of NFL quarterback comparisons. In politics, lazy media personalities will say things like "…and you know who ELSE did that?! HITLER!" Ryan Leaf had a brief stint as the starting quarterback in Dallas.

Indianapolis over Denver (+6.5)

Champ Bailey is hurt and the Broncos weren't good enough to beat the Jaguars. Since Week 6 last year, I can't think of a single thing that Broncos fans can be happy about unless, you know, they had a child or found a better job or something. Sports probably mean too much to us.

San Diego over Seattle (+5.5)

The NFL Network is currently airing an incredible miniseries in which they count down the Top 100 Players in NFL History. I know that the point of the list is to be more historic than accurate – in other words, for the entire body of work to serve as a celebration of the league's history and not a definitive list of excellence. Still, the only reason to make lists is to argue about them. And come on! Randy Moss and LaDanian Tomlinson in the mid-'60s??? The top two non-QB offensive talents over the last twelve years aren't top-30?

Randy Moss is the reason the '07 Patriots and '98 Vikings combined to go 34-3* including postseason play. The '07 Patriots are the highest scoring offense of all time…topping only the '98 Vikings. Brian Billick was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota in '98 and can thank Moss for getting him a job as the Ravens head coach (even though the Ravens' offense always sucked with Billick in charge). The search for the next Randy Moss is the reason Matt Millen drafted something like four hundred wide receivers with a top-5 draft pick. Packers GM Ted Thompson's mind-boggling refusal to pay Randy Moss market value is the reason Brett Favre left the Packers and ended up destroying his own legacy.

I meant to write something about Tomlinson as well, but that Randy Moss rant really took a lot out of me. I write when I want to write.

New York Jets
(+1.5) over Miami

Miami is a very good team. But the Jets' Week 2 win over the Patriots could act as a catalyst for this team to go on a winning streak or, at the very least, what Krusty the clown refers to as "the bender to end all benders". I love the Michigan Wolverines but I'm disgusted by Braylon Edwards's actions. Braylon should have done what all college kids do after a night out – namely, stumbled into WaWa at 5 am and purchased 3,500 calories worth of food. That and not driven.

Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago

Mike Martz has been the recipient of a lot of love from the pundit class this week. Here are some things to keep in mind:

1. His wins came against Detroit (the Bears only scored 19 points) and Dallas (the Cowboys suck).
   
2. The Greatest Show on Turf was created by Dick Vermeil, not Mike Martz. Martz took Vermeil's roster and talent and turned it into Marc Bulger and zero Super Bowl wins.
   
3. The 2001 Patriots are clearly the least talented champion of the last 15 years. Martz played into Bellichick's hands by refusing to run the offense through Marshall Faulk – the league's MVP that year. I'm not taking anything away from what the 2001 Patriots did – they were a smart, gritty team which played the game the right way (vomits). But Martz's arrogance cost the Rams a second title.
   
4. After Martz left the Rams, he went 10-19 in two seasons as Detroit's coach before becoming the 49ers' offensive coordinator. Martz's Wikipedia page actually includes the quote "Martz lobbied for journeyman J.T. O'Sullivan" to be the team's quarterback. Again, this man does not have great judgement.
   

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 12-20

America’s Game

When I was 17, I invested a significant amount of money in a company which makes discount HDTVs. Seven months later, I learned that equity holders do not fare very well during bankruptcy proceedings and that many of these equity holders are subject to getting yelled at by their respective mothers. Mom is a big fan of portfolio diversification.

I haven't wagered with real money since. Still, my friends and I pick every NFL game against the spread for fun each week. Last year, I picked 13 of 16 games correctly in Week 17 to complete an improbable run to the league championship. I was clearly affected by some sort of championship hangover, since I started out 2010 with a Week 1 record of 4-12. It's early in the season, but I am in last place by six games.

Chris Berman had a running joke where he picked Buffalo to play San Francisco in the Super Bowl every year for nearly two decades. I shy away from easy predictions because few predictions are correct anyway, and it's better to be thought provoking than correct in this context (did I mention my stock portfolio went to $0?). My two bold predictions for the 2010 NFL season have been with me for over a month now, though admittedly they are being posted a week late. One seems smart and the other doesn't.

1. The New England Patriots will miss the playoffs.
   

   
   

   This prediction is already looking weak. The Pats have the chance to reassert themselves as the class of the AFC if they stomp Rex Ryan and the Jets this Sunday. Rex, like his father Buddy, is a great defensive coach with an inability to develop potent offenses. Also, each has the first name of a dog. I expect Sparky Ryan to take over the Browns by Week 6.
   

   
   

2. The Washington Redskins will make the playoffs.
   

   
   

   Bill Simmons is the most popular sportswriter in the country, and the fact that I am calling the Skins my sleeper team 7 days and one victory after he did makes it seem as though this prediction is unoriginal. Nobody denies this.
   

   
   

   But, I've been touting Washington's chances all offseason. Last year, they lost 3 games in a row to the Eagles (up 10 in the 4^th quarter), Cowboys (lost 7-6 as Washington's kicker missed 2 easy FGs) and Saints (up 10 with 2 minutes left). I figured Shanahan and McNabb are enough to swing those close games in Washington's favor, as well as rectify embarrassing losses to Kansas City, Detroit and Carolina. And even if Alex Barron is the best player on their team so far, at least this prediction still has a chance of being right.
   

   
   

   On the other hand, Rex Grossman is the backup QB, and he sucks at being QB almost as much as I do at picking NFL games. Week 2 (home teams in bold):
   

Arizona (+6.5) over Atlanta

Atlanta is getting a lot of love from prognosticators and, presumably, Ron Mexico. I don't want to pick the Falcons primarily because they are an incredibly boring team to watch. At least with the Cardinals, I can remember how awesome the Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald Kennedy connection was. I can even remember how awesome the Jake Plummer/Frank Sanders connection was. But the most exciting offensive sequence in Falcons history was three plays with Deion Sanders in 1992.

Cincinnati (+1.5) over Baltimore.

Ray Rice looks amazing and will get plenty of red zone touches, unlike last week. You'd have to be a complete moron to turn down a trade of Ray Rice and Jeremy Shockey for Jamaal Charles and Jermichael Finley. I hope my fantasy football trade counterparty is reading this. Seriously though, that is a completely fair trade.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Cleveland

If Jake Delhomme can't play, Seneca Wallace will start for the Browns. Wallace was the league's MVP from 2006-2008 as he led the Cowboys to a record of 55-2 with three titles over that time period. Madden used to be awesome.

Dallas (-8.5) over Chicago

Alex Barron and Jason Garrett are worth 14 points to the other team. So really, this spread is Dallas by 22.5. Still, despite my pessimism for my favorite team's 2010 chances, I hate picking against my own rooting interest.

Philadelphia (-3.5) over Detroit

I hope Matthew Stafford is healthy if only because he looks like chubby Matt Damon.

Green Bay (-13.5) over Buffalo

Last year's Saints and the 2007 Patriots used to beat bad teams at home by at least three touchdowns. If the Packers can't do that, then…it means nothing because championships are decided in February. But, ESPN has a lot of airtime to fill, so there. I think the only way that ESPN could entertain me at this point is if I could watch a video of Mark Schlereth reacting to the news that the Bengals signed Manny Ramirez to be their tight end. "THIS MAN HAS NO RESPECT FOR THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!!!!!"

Tennessee (-5.5) over Pittsburgh

Every few years, Tennessee goes 13-3 and loses to Baltimore in its first playoff game. We're overdue.

Miami (+5.5) over Minnesota

The longest kick I ever made in a game was a 58-yarder with Olindo Mare to beat the Vikings.

Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

Guys! I found a great website where we can stream this game! WE WILL NOT MISS THIS SHOWDOWN!!!

Seattle
(+3.5) over Denver

Bill Belichick's coaching tree sucks, though at least Josh McDaniels is now the leading candidate to be Kansas City's 2011 water boy.

Oakland (-4.5) over St. Louis

Oakland is terrible, but my guess is that an interception-return touchdown will allow the Raiders to cover the spread.

Jets (+1.5) over New England

The Jets offense sucks. But there's no way that Brian Schottenheimer and Rex Ryan are dumb enough to try to run the offense through Mark Sanchez again. If the Jets run the ball 30 times – which they can do effectively against the Patriots – their defense is good enough to win the game.

San Diego (-7.5) over Jacksonville

The Jaguars will probably be playing in Los Angeles by 2013 anyway, so this is a crosstown rivalry as far as I'm concerned. The Chargers used to remind me of the Dallas Mavericks or Phoenix Suns – incredibly talented, fun to watch teams with charismatic superstars and a history of heartbreaking playoff losses. With the loss of Tomlinson, the Chargers are now the Suns without Nash or the Mavs without Dirk. No longer any reason to pull for them.

Houston (-2.5) over Washington

I wish the Texans played the 49ers this week in the Chick-Fil-A Preseason Hype Bowl, because the Texans would crush San Francisco and finally validate all the preseason love. I'm on the bandwagon.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York

I'm not picking against Jim Caldwell. Caldwell's career record in September is 4-1, and you just can't argue with those numbers.

New Orleans (-4.5) over San Francisco

At first, I thought this line said Saints -45, in which case it might make sense.

Last week: 4-12

Season: 4-12