Less is More

Earlier this week, Indianapolis Colts President Bill Polian said that an 18-game schedule was a "fait acompli". I'm surprised Polian is whining to change the rules, since it's not like the Colts lost to the New England 16GameSeasons in last year's postseason. Anyway, I sincerely hope the players' union shows some resolve and refuses to agree to the expanded season.

Product dilution is the reason no one my age cares about the NHL or MLB. The NFL doesn't have this problem yet. Let's hope it stays that way.

I had another awful picks week in Week 3, going 6-10 and falling five games back of the leader. I need to put together a rich, gorgeous week – empty of the post glo-fi melodrama and dark irony which defined the past decade. The last sentence is what I imagine it would look like if hipster music website Pitchfork made NFL picks. Week 4, wish me luck:

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) over San Francisco 49ers

Pickup football games are determined by talent, but NFL games are determined by organization and execution. Mike Smith is part of a Baltimore coaching lineage which includes Rex Ryan and Marvin Lewis. Mike Singletary believes that pants are optional. Lots of people make jokes about how Singletary looks a little like a turtle, but they have to remember that his ability to avoid pelicans and make it to the ocean shortly after his birth is what made him one of the greatest linebackers in NFL history.

In all seriousness, I watched an NFL Films show where Singletary, Smith, Ryan, Lewis, Jack Del Rio and John Harbaugh were seated at a round table and spent half an hour discussing Ray Lewis. The show, like everything ever made by NFL Films, was fantastic. I think Singletary is a good defensive coach and excellent motivator, but his offense is chronically underprepared - which is similar to being acutely underprepared but it lasts longer.

New York Jets over The Los Angeles Bills of Anaheim and Toronto (+5.5)

In our picks league, there are a few games which everyone picks the same way. For example, no one picked the Jaguars to cover against Philadelphia last week. This means that only four or five games have enough variance to generate differentiation in the overall picks standings. Early on in the season, there is no need to take on excessive risk and "try to be a hero". If I'm still five or six games back in Week 17, I'll have to pick ridiculous upsets and hope I get lucky. What I'm saying is, there's no way I'm picking the Bills in Week 4.

I remember a few years ago, after the Sonics left Seattle, everyone was rightfully disgusted with the NBA. We might have been disgusted by the NBA, but most of us weren't sure if the correct phrasing is "disgusted with" or "disgusted by". Still, I feel horrible for Buffalo and I sincerely hope those fans get to keep their team. I was never a Bills fan, but those fans and those old school jerseys ('90s, not '70s) generated so many happy memories for me as a kid. I remember Thurman Thomas's goofy facemask and Wade "Rob Johnson is a Good Idea" Phillips making horrible decisions. I remember Marv Levy and Frank Reich and the ridiculous Oilers/Bills playoff game – not because I watched it, but because it's canonized in NFL lore. And, you'd have to be heartless not to love small market teams with devoted fan bases. Did you know that there is a Bills fan named Ken Johnson who has been giving away free shots of Polish cherry liqueur during his Orchard Park tailgates for the last twenty years? If the Bills move and the NFL expands to 18 games, I'd improbably hate NFL management more than I hate NBA management. Actually, Stu Jackson will probably suspend Kevin Garnett for breathing on LeBron James for Game 7 of next year's Eastern Conference Finals, so he'll still be worse. But it will be close.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Green Bay Packers (-14.5) over Detroit Lions

If the Lions were healthy, I'd pick them to cover.

Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

During the promos for last week's Colts-Broncos game, the voiceover said something like "Manning and Orton prepare for a duel in Denver!" Orton's not bad, but I don't think he belongs in the same sentence as Manning. He probably doesn't even belong in the same language. If that promo were written in Cyrillic, then it might be acceptable.

Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams (+.5)

This game could cause an existential crisis in St. Louis if fans extrapolate the meaninglessness of this game to life in general. Aujourd'hu, le Premier Show du Turf est morte. Ou peut etre hier, je ne sais pas.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) over Carolina Panthers

I expect a blowout.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Finally, a game worth writing about. The Steelers have been the most impressive team in the league through three weeks. I originally picked the Ravens in this game before flip-flopping. I thought that it would be too difficult for Charlie Batch to play well against the Ravens' defense, but then I realized that the Steelers' defense is better than Baltimore's and Batch is better than Flacco. Plus, teams have been able to run on Baltimore this year.

Announcers will say things like "YOU BETTER STRAP ON YOUR HELMETS FOR A BRAWL IN PITTSBURGH!!!" What bothers me is that if Green Bay played New Orleans, they'd be fetishizing "TWO TEAMS WHO CAN REALLY SCORE ON YA! IT'LL BE A BARNBURNER!!!!" What do announcers really like? I feel as if they're cheating on me. Dan Dierdorf, you broke my heart.

Intelligent Design over Evolution (+3.5)

Manatees and Wade Phillips are what caused me to question evolution this week. Come on, have you ever seen a manatee? All they do is float there like idiots and eat all day and get hit by boats. I have similar arguments for Wade Phillips. Unless manatees were playing in the NFC West, there's no way they could possibly be considered the "fittest" of anything.

Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5)

Houston Texans over Oakland Raiders (+3.5)

Arizona Cardinals over San Diego Chargers (-8.5)

Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Rooting for the Redskins here, so I might as well pick them.

New York Giants (-3.5) over Chicago Bears

The talking heads on Around the Horn this week were lauding the Bears for being "THE LAST UNDEFEATED TEAM IN THE NFC! YOU GUYS DON'T UNDERSTAND FOOTBALLL!!!!!!". The Bears could easily be 1-2.

Miami Dolphins (-.5) over New England Patriots

Any team that gives up 30 points to Buffalo needs help on defense. I love Tom Brady's Michigan connection. Denard Robinson has brought me enough happiness to take the edge off of each Cowboys loss.

One final note: my friends and I are going to Atlantic City on Thursday night for fall break. Hopefully I can get a few good
stories out of it.

Last Week: 6-10

Season: 18-30